Kashmir on the edge: India-Pakistan tensions flare after deadly Baisaran attack

Eleven days after a brutal attack in Baisaran, Kashmir, that left 26 civilians dead, India and Pakistan are once again teetering on the edge of military conflict. The April 22 massacre has reignited hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbours, with India indirectly accusing Pakistan, while Islamabad flatly denies involvement.

In response, both countries have taken retaliatory diplomatic and strategic steps. India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, a lifeline for Pakistan’s water needs. Pakistan, in turn, has threatened to exit the Simla Agreement, a cornerstone accord that defines the Line of Control (LoC) in disputed Kashmir.

Expulsions of citizens and downgrading of embassies have further deepened the rift. Though a ceasefire has held since 2021, recent cross-border firing signals the worst deterioration since 2019, when India launched air strikes after a suicide bombing in Pulwama.

As anticipation of another Indian military response builds, both countries are working behind the scenes. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth have reached out to Indian and Pakistani leaders, calling for calm and condemning the attack. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has met with diplomats from China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, seeking international support to defuse tensions.

Former Pakistani National Security Adviser Moeed Yusuf, now an academic in Lahore, suggests the coming days will test the limits of diplomacy in a region where peace is often fragile and fleeting.

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