Patna: With the Election Commission gearing up to announce the schedule of the Bihar Assembly polls soon, the issue of political “Goliaths” getting defeated by other politically strong opponents or dark horses currently assumes massive significance in this state.
This is more so as Bihar has repeatedly witnessed a sudden fall of Titans and rise of the little-known in politics after the poll results. One of the primary reasons of this is the sudden mood swing of the electorate.
The ongoing political game of permutations and combinations is fast changing the electoral arithmetic as the Lok Janshankti Party (LJP), a constituent of the NDA, is not at all happy with Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s Chief Minister.
Time and again, LJP President Chirag Paswan has indicated that he is unhappy with Nitish Kumar. Since the LJP has a strong base in Bihar, the possibility of a mood-swing of a large segment of voters, particularly the Scheduled Castes, can certainly create massive problems for the ruling NDA.
Since Paswan wrote a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi just a few days ago, expressing his unhappiness over the Chief Minister’s functioning, failure of the Bihar government in handling the COVID-19 crisis, raw deal to the migrants and decline in law and order in the state, all does not seems well on the NDA-coalition front.
A total 7,18,22,450 electorate (3,79,12,127 males and 3,39,07,979 females) are going to vote this time. Of them, 7,14,988 are in the age group of 18-19 years while 13,03,543 are above 80 years old.
Under this electorate population (EP) ratio, as published by the Election Commission, it is very probable that, like in 2015, the coming Assembly polls may see an un-excepted result due to the 7,14,988 voters in the age group of 18-19 years who are emotionally charged and have development as their prime concern.
Since the NDA government failed on the development front, this time may see swing resulting in the victory of many dark horses and the defeat of political stalwarts. But the poll-defeat of political stalwarts is nothing new in this state.
The reason of the sharp uncertainty of Bihar’s poll results emanate from the following pertinent factors:
i. Asaduddin Owaisi
His All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) has expanded formidably since the 2014 Lok Sabha election. Owaisi received massive support of the Muslim youth earlier in his public meetings in Purnea, Kishenganj and Araria.
The AIMIM, which debuted in the Bihar Assembly in 2019 when Qamrul Hoda defeated his BJP rival in a closely contested by-poll, is likely to contest in 40 seats this time where the Muslim population is above 25%. We all know what a slide of 25% voters will mean to a particular party.
ii. Mukesh Sahani
Since 2014, this Bollywood set designer had been championing the cause of the Dalit community Nishad, also known as Mallah, who constitute a hefty 30% of the Extremely Backward Community. This community caused the defeat of many upper caste candidates and established politicians. His Vikassheel Insaan Party has successfully brought 20 sub-castes of the Nishads under one umbrella to make them a political force. The Vikassheel Insaan Party claims to have the support of 1.75 crore Nishads.
iii. Jitan Ram Manjhi
A former Chief Minister, Jitan Ram Manjhi attained a good political stature as he belongs to the Dalit community of Musahar. As Manjhi has returned to the NDA, the UPA may see many of its stalwarts getting defeated due to the mood change of the Dalit voters.
In Bihar, about 18% of the population belongs to the Dalit-bloc.
iv. Pappu Yadav
Pappu Yadav’s political outfit, Jan Adikar Party claims that the coming Assembly polls may see surprising results. It may not be considered as an oracle, but his very vigorous campaigning on the issue of the alleged misrule of Nitish Kumar is sure to influence the voters of the Kosi River-belt in North Bihar greatly.
While his Jan Adikar Party became popular recently for helping the victims of the Bihar floods, the JD(U) and BJP did not come at the succour of the victims. Nitish Kumar even hit the national news basket for walking along with the carpets while inspecting the plight of the poor flood victims.
As Yadav’s case forms around 15% of total voters, a poll-swing in Bihar is quite possible.
v. Migrants
For the first time in the electoral history of Bihar, the migrants have emerged as a very major poll issue due to the step-motherly behaviour they saw from Nitish Kumar and his NDA-led government. He has very greatly antagonized the migrant labourers who went to other states due to the lack of employment in Bihar.
Nearly15 lakh migrants who returned to Bihar may vote against the ruling NDA which may find many of this political bloc’s stalwarts suffering defeats at the polls.
While the 2011 Census says that around 75 lakh inter-state migrants are from Bihar, the Working Group on Migration in 2017 identified 17 districts of India as the source of the highest inter-state migration and six of them are from Bihar. The six districts are Madhubani, Darbhanga, Siwan, Saran, Samastipur and Patna.
If Rabri Devi, former chief minister, was defeated in 2010, this is no wonder as the 2015 Assembly polls too found a large number of political big-wigs suffering defeats. Interestingly, the sons, daughter and relatives of the main political players of Bihar were also defeated.
Ram Vilas Paswan’s brother, Pashupati Kumar Paras, and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s son, Santosh Kumar Suman, were some of them. Even Manjhi, contesting from two seats, was defeated from the Makhadumapur seat but won from Imamganj, where he defeated Udai Narayan Chaudhary, the former speaker of the Assembly.
Similarly, Nitish Mishra, the son of thrice former chief minister Jagannath Mishra, too was defeated.
Now the question arises: Will the Indian democracy repeat it in the coming Bihar polls? Let us wait and watch.
