India’s October 2025 export numbers tell a mixed story: a sharp 19% rise in electronics exports—powered by $2.4 billion in smartphone shipments—contrasted with steep declines across nearly every other major export category. Experts warn this imbalance signals structural stress, amplified by U.S. tariffs, global demand weakness and China’s aggressive undercutting in key markets.
Electronics: The lone bright spot
Smartphones accounted for 60% of electronics exports in October, with Apple alone shipping $1.6 billion worth of iPhones. For April–October 2025, electronics grew nearly 38% to $26.28 billion, narrowing the gap with petroleum exports. If momentum holds, electronics could soon become India’s second-largest export category.
Sharp declines across top sectors
For the first time in years, all top ten export categories shrank collectively:
- Engineering goods: down 16.7%
- Petroleum products: down 10.5%
- Pharmaceuticals: down 5.2%
- Gems & jewellery: down 29.5%
- Chemicals: down 21%
- Textiles & garments: down 13%
- Plastics & linoleum: down 21.6%
- Rice: down 16.5%
Merchandise exports fell from $38.98B to $34.38B—a 12.6% YoY contraction.
China tightens its grip on global markets
Analysts attribute much of the decline to China’s strategic export push—flooding markets with low-cost goods, diversifying away from the U.S., and aggressively expanding into Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
India’s exports to key destinations—UAE, UK, Germany, Australia, South Korea, Brazil—fell sharply, while China gained ground in each.
The U.S.’s tariff revisions have also shifted competitiveness. While electronics remain exempt, lower tariffs on Chinese fentanyl-linked categories indirectly strengthen China’s electronics supply chain advantage.
Global backlash, but limited relief
India, the U.S., Mexico and Brazil launched 79 anti-dumping and countervailing cases against China in the first half of 2025. Yet without domestic capacity building or technology transfer, experts warn many developing economies risk deindustrialisation as Chinese firms dominate assembly without sharing know-how.
Germany’s projected €87B trade deficit with China underscores how even advanced economies are recalibrating supply chains to reduce dependence.
Electronics can’t offset structural declines
India’s strength in electronics—particularly smartphones—offers temporary cushioning. But policymakers warn that:
- Demand-driven growth in one sector cannot compensate for multi-sector contraction
- U.S. tariff pressure will intensify
- Chinese competition is eroding India’s share in traditional markets
- High domestic costs and limited incentives weaken competitiveness
If current trends persist, India may see a widening trade gap and weakened export resilience.
What India needs next
Experts suggest a three-pronged plan:
- Sector-specific relief for engineering, textiles, chemicals and gems to revive competitiveness.
- Tariff and logistics reforms to offset cost disadvantages vs. China and ASEAN.
- Market diversification with deeper engagement in Africa, Latin America and Europe.
Electronics may be booming—but October’s data shows India’s broader export engine is slowing sharply, with China fast reshaping the competitive landscape.