Karnataka may be heading towards a difficult monsoon season after the India Meteorological Department forecast below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall for 2026, raising serious concerns over water security, farming and reservoirs.
After witnessing surplus rainfall in 2025, the state is now facing a contrasting outlook following months of intense heat and falling water levels.
Karnataka outlook more worrying
IMD has forecast India to receive around 92% of long period average rainfall, placing the national season in the below-normal category.
However, Karnataka’s outlook is considered more concerning, with rainfall likely to remain below normal across multiple regions.
Forecasts indicate:
- Coastal Karnataka – Below normal
- North Interior Karnataka – Below normal to near normal
- South Interior Karnataka – Below normal
Bengaluru water fears return
Bengaluru depends heavily on Cauvery water and groundwater recharged by seasonal rains.
Experts warn that weak monsoon rainfall could bring back summer water stress similar to recent crisis periods, affecting homes, tanker demand and groundwater reserves.
Farmers may face hardship
The agriculture sector may be among the worst affected, especially rain-fed districts in North Karnataka.
Major crops such as paddy, maize, pulses and oilseeds could face delayed sowing or lower yields if rainfall arrives late or remains uneven.
Farmers may also be forced to shift to less water-intensive crops.
Reservoirs and power under pressure
Poor rainfall can reduce inflows into dams used for irrigation, drinking water and hydroelectric generation, increasing pressure across sectors.
Need for preparedness
Experts say water conservation, efficient irrigation, lake revival and early planning will be crucial if the monsoon underperforms.
For Karnataka, the coming rains may decide the state’s economic and environmental stability this year.