New Delhi: Global crude oil prices rebounded sharply, with Brent crude futures settling above $95 per barrel on Thursday, November 12, as fresh concerns over attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz overshadowed hopes of progress in negotiations involving the United States and Iran.
Brent crude futures settled at $95.82 per barrel, gaining $3.06, or 3.3%, during the session. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also moved higher, rising $2.21, or 2.6%, to settle at $88.74 per barrel.
The recovery came after crude prices had fallen earlier in the week amid expectations that diplomatic efforts could ease the conflict and improve the flow of oil from the Middle East. Brent had slipped below $90 before reversing course.
Brent was trading around $95.70 per barrel on Friday morning, with a slightly negative bias, after the previous session’s gains.
Trump’s comments on Iran add to market uncertainty
The latest movement in crude prices followed comments by US President Donald Trump indicating that Washington did not need a deal with Iran.
In a post on Truth Social on Thursday, Trump said the US did not need an agreement with Tehran and referred to Iranian funds and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The remarks raised questions about the prospects for a diplomatic resolution and added to concerns that uncertainty around the conflict could continue to affect global energy supplies.
Iran, meanwhile, has maintained that the US must lift its naval blockade and sanctions before direct peace negotiations can take place. Iranian officials have also said the country does not intend to remove its enriched nuclear material.
The conflicting positions have left markets uncertain about when normal shipping conditions and regional oil flows could return.
Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure lift prices
Crude prices received additional support after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed it had attacked a pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline, an oil facility in the Red Sea port city of Yanbu and an Aramco building in Riyadh.
Saudi-led forces later said they had intercepted and destroyed two drones launched by the group. One was intercepted in the Riyadh region and another in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.
The reports heightened concerns about the security of oil production and transportation infrastructure in one of the world’s most important energy-producing regions.
Iran’s military also said four oil tankers had been hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz after ignoring warnings. Reuters said it could not immediately verify the Iranian military’s account.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically important route for international energy trade. Before the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, the waterway carried nearly one-fifth of global crude oil supplies.
Any prolonged disruption to shipping through the passage could affect the availability of crude in international markets and increase transportation costs.
Oil prices remain under pressure despite Thursday’s recovery
Despite the sharp rebound, both major crude benchmarks were still heading for a second consecutive weekly decline as of Thursday’s settlement.
Brent and WTI were each down around 2.5% for the week, reflecting the weakness recorded earlier as investors assessed the possibility of progress in US-Iran negotiations.
NDTV Profit reported that crude prices had fallen during November, with WTI declining around 16% and Brent losing nearly 20% over the month at the time of its report.
Earlier comments from Trump suggesting that further US military action against Iran appeared unlikely had helped push prices lower. Investors had anticipated that a reduction in hostilities could allow Middle Eastern oil supplies to recover and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to become less restricted.
However, the latest developments have demonstrated how quickly geopolitical headlines can change market expectations.
Higher production and US inventories limit the rally
Supply-side developments have also influenced crude prices. Data from OPEC+ showed that oil production increased in October, led by higher output from Saudi Arabia despite continuing shipping disruptions in the region.
Higher production can help offset supply concerns and limit the extent of price increases when geopolitical risks intensify.
In the United States, crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories also increased during the previous week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Rising stockpiles can indicate softer demand or stronger available supply, potentially weighing on crude prices.
The market is therefore balancing two opposing forces: concerns about possible supply disruptions in the Middle East and signs of higher production and inventories elsewhere.
Developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have added another layer of uncertainty. Ukraine said its drones had struck the port area of Ust-Luga in north-western Russia, causing a fire and damaging part of its fuel storage infrastructure. The port is an important outlet for oil, petroleum products, grain and other commodities.
What could happen to crude oil prices next?
The near-term direction of crude prices is likely to depend heavily on developments in the Middle East, particularly the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of further attacks on energy infrastructure.
A sustained improvement in diplomatic relations and the restoration of normal shipping flows could ease the supply-risk premium currently reflected in prices. Higher OPEC+ output and rising US inventories could also put pressure on the benchmarks.
On the other hand, further attacks on oil facilities or tankers, or an extended disruption to shipping, could renew concerns about global supply and support prices.
For now, the rebound above $95 highlights the sensitivity of the oil market to geopolitical developments. Thursday’s gains have not yet reversed the weekly losses, leaving traders focused on whether the latest escalation represents a temporary disruption or the beginning of a prolonged period of supply uncertainty.