New Delhi: Global investment banking firm Morgan Stanley has said that Reliance Industries is on a path toward a $20 billion+ EBITDA run rate inflexion, which could be supported by five major factors. Besides the firm’s new energy business could add $50 billion in market cap in 2022.
First and foremost, refinery margins could nearly double and be sustained at high levels for the next half-decade, with global fuel markets seeing sustained lower supply due to a lack of investments.
The global firm sees telecom average revenue per user (ARPU) rising, quality of subscribers improving and churn falling and Reliance guided for normalisation ahead as one recharge cycle is behind.
Thereafter, the global gas market could tighten further as producer discipline remains with rising domestic gas production.
Rising traction on digital commerce with 193 million subscribers and a consistent 20 per cent revenue contribution would expand margins.
Lastly, superior petrochemical spreads in olefin and PVC as global cost curves are uplifted, and supply should add to unwinding.
“Investors appear highly sceptical, especially on the sustainability of the energy upcycle and potential demand destruction, but we see enough buffers on-demand/global inventories along with supply discipline to drive multi-year outperformance,” the global investment firm said in a report.