Reliance Jio could increase its mobile tariffs by around 12% over the next three to four months, according to brokerage firm Centrum Broking, which sees higher average revenue per user (ARPU) as a key driver of earnings growth ahead of Jio Platforms’ upcoming initial public offering (IPO).

The brokerage expects rising data consumption, premium subscription plans and expanding 5G and broadband services to help Jio improve revenue from its large customer base. However, the proposed tariff increase remains a brokerage forecast and has not been confirmed by the telecom operator.

Jio Platforms filed its red herring prospectus (RHP), the near-final offer document, on October 14. The IPO is scheduled to open on October 21 and close on October 23, with a fresh issue of up to 27 crore shares.

Why Centrum Broking Expects a 12% Tariff Hike

Centrum Broking expects a potential tariff increase over the next three to four months to support Jio’s revenue growth as the company prepares to enter the public markets.

According to the brokerage, further growth will increasingly depend on improving ARPU as Jio’s subscriber base expands. With a large number of customers already on its network, higher revenue per subscriber could become an important earnings lever.

ARPU measures the average monthly revenue generated from each subscriber. For a telecom operator with hundreds of millions of users, even a relatively small increase in this figure can contribute significantly to overall revenue.

Centrum’s assessment links Jio’s growing customer base and increasing data consumption to the company’s ability to monetise investments in 5G connectivity and fixed broadband.

The anticipated tariff increase could therefore support earnings growth, provided customers continue to use Jio’s services without a substantial rise in subscriber losses.

Jio’s ARPU and Customer Base Continue to Grow

Jio’s financial and operating figures indicate an increase in revenue per user alongside growth in its subscriber base and data consumption.

The company’s ARPU rose to Rs 215.6 in the first quarter of FY27, covering April to June 2026, from Rs 208.8 in the corresponding quarter a year earlier.

Its customer base reached 533.3 million during the quarter. Monthly data consumption per user also increased to 43.7 GB from 37 GB in the first quarter of FY26.

These figures highlight the growing demand for mobile data and the potential to generate more revenue from existing customers.

Centrum believes that as Jio’s subscriber base becomes larger, ARPU expansion will play an increasingly important role in supporting further revenue growth.

Premium Plans, 5G and Broadband Offer Further Growth Opportunities

A tariff increase is not the only way Jio can improve revenue per customer. Premiumisation, higher-value bundled plans, increasing 5G adoption and growth in fixed broadband are also expected to contribute to ARPU expansion.

Jio Platforms’ RHP states that underlying connectivity ARPU has significant room for growth. It identifies periodic tariff rationalisation, reflecting improvements in service quality and value, as one potential driver.

The document also points to higher-value bundled plans and rising per capita income as factors that could support pricing growth.

Jio’s 5G subscriber base increased to 285 million in the first quarter of FY27, compared with 210 million in the same quarter of FY26.

Fixed broadband customers rose to 28.6 million from 20 million over the same period. This included 14 million JioAirFiber customers.

These developments provide opportunities for Jio to generate revenue beyond conventional mobile connectivity. Centrum has also identified home broadband, enterprise solutions and artificial intelligence-led digital services as potential growth areas.

The expansion of these services could help the company derive greater value from its existing network investments.

Revenue and EBITDA Rise in First Quarter of FY27

Jio reported growth in revenue and operating earnings during the first quarter of FY27.

Revenue increased 10.8% year-on-year to Rs 34,212 crore, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 12.1% to Rs 18,709 crore.

The EBITDA margin improved to 54.7%, compared with 54% in the corresponding period a year earlier.

Centrum Broking expects Jio’s revenue, EBITDA and profit after tax to grow at compound annual growth rates of 14%, 16% and 16%, respectively, between FY26 and FY29.

The brokerage expects a potential tariff increase to contribute to ARPU growth and values Jio’s equity at approximately Rs 11.5 lakh crore, based on its valuation of the telecom business and other Jio Platforms entities.

These projections reflect the brokerage’s expectations rather than guaranteed future performance.

Jio Platforms IPO and Use of Proceeds

Jio Platforms is preparing to enter the public markets through its IPO, with the company seeking a market-discovered valuation for its telecom and digital businesses.

The RHP filed on October 14 outlines a fresh issue of up to 27 crore shares. The IPO is scheduled to open on October 21 and close on October 23.

The issue proceeds are largely earmarked for repaying or prepaying debt.

With the IPO approaching, investors are likely to examine Jio’s ability to sustain revenue growth, improve profitability and increase earnings from its expanding customer base.

The company’s ARPU trajectory is particularly important because it provides an indication of how effectively Jio is converting subscriber activity and data usage into revenue.

Tariff Hike Risks and Customer Churn

Despite the potential benefits, a tariff increase carries risks. Higher prices can improve revenue per subscriber, but the final outcome will depend on customer response, competition and Jio’s ability to retain users.

Jio Platforms’ RHP notes that an industry-wide tariff increase in the second quarter of FY25 lifted ARPU but also contributed to higher customer churn and slower customer growth.

The document warns that future tariff increases may face resistance among price-sensitive customers. Competitors may also choose not to follow similar pricing changes, while the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) could intervene on pricing matters.

The RHP states that there is no assurance that future tariff adjustments can be implemented or sustained without a material loss of customers.

These risks mean that a higher tariff does not automatically translate into stronger earnings. The overall impact will depend on how customers respond and whether increased revenue per user offsets any subscriber losses.

What Investors Will Watch Ahead of the IPO

The central question for Jio is whether rising data consumption and its expanding 5G and broadband customer base can translate into sustained ARPU growth.

Centrum Broking’s forecast of a tariff increase of around 12% over the next three to four months puts pricing strategy at the centre of its earnings outlook. However, Jio has not confirmed such a move.

Investors will also need to consider subscriber retention, competitive pricing, growth in premium plans and the company’s ability to monetise its digital services.

As Jio Platforms approaches its IPO, ARPU growth and the possibility of higher tariffs are likely to remain important elements of the investment case, alongside the company’s financial performance and the risks outlined in its offer document.