New Delhi: India Meteorological Department has downgraded its southwest monsoon forecast for 2026, warning of a significantly higher probability of deficient rainfall across the country. The revised outlook has intensified concerns over agriculture, water availability, inflation and overall economic growth, especially as India also grapples with rising energy and input costs linked to global geopolitical tensions.
According to the latest forecast, seasonal rainfall during the June-September monsoon period is expected to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), lower than the earlier estimate of 92% issued in April. The IMD has indicated a 60% probability of rainfall falling below 90% of the LPA, which would classify the season as deficient.
IMD lowers monsoon forecast
The revised projection marks one of the weakest monsoon outlooks in more than a decade and reflects growing concerns about developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The IMD stated that there is an 84% probability of the monsoon remaining in the deficient-to-below-normal range during the season.
A deficient monsoon can have widespread consequences because nearly half of India’s agricultural land remains dependent on rainfall rather than irrigation. Lower rainfall can affect crop sowing, reduce yields and place pressure on rural incomes.
Weather experts also noted that below-normal rainfall could affect reservoir storage levels, groundwater recharge and hydroelectric power generation across several states.
El Niño expected to weaken rainfall
The IMD has attributed the downgraded forecast primarily to the expected development of El Nino conditions during the monsoon season.
According to the weather agency, current neutral conditions in the Pacific are expected to gradually transition into El Nino. The phenomenon is forecast to remain weak during June, strengthen to moderate levels in July and August, and become stronger by September.
Historically, El Niño events have often been associated with weaker monsoons, hotter temperatures and rainfall deficits across large parts of India.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra said climate models indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon period.
Heatwave risk rises across several states
Alongside the weaker rainfall forecast, the IMD has warned of above-normal heatwave days across multiple regions during June.
States expected to experience increased heatwave activity include Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Some regions such as Rajasthan and Jharkhand may witness comparatively fewer heatwave days than usual.
Meteorologists say prolonged heatwaves combined with delayed rainfall could worsen water stress in both urban and rural regions.
Agriculture faces multiple challenges
The forecast has raised serious concerns for the agricultural sector, which remains highly dependent on monsoon performance. Delayed rainfall and lower precipitation could postpone sowing activities for major kharif crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds.
The monsoon core zone, covering large parts of central and western India, is expected to face the strongest impact of rainfall deficiency. Experts warn that reduced crop acreage and lower yields could affect food production during the year.
The situation is further complicated by rising prices of diesel, fertilisers and agricultural inputs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, increasing pressure on farmers and rural households.
Economic impact under watch
Economists are closely monitoring the monsoon outlook because rainfall remains a critical driver of India’s rural economy and food inflation.
A weaker monsoon could lead to lower agricultural output, higher food prices and softer rural consumption. Reservoir shortages and reduced hydropower generation could also place additional stress on energy supplies.
While India currently maintains adequate food grain stocks, analysts caution that prolonged rainfall deficits may still influence inflation trends and economic growth over the coming months.
Conclusion
The IMD’s revised monsoon forecast has heightened concerns about drought-like conditions during the 2026 southwest monsoon season. With El Niño expected to strengthen through the coming months, policymakers, farmers and industry stakeholders are preparing for potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, power generation and the broader economy.