The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its rainfall forecast for Kerala, issuing fresh alerts as a low-pressure area develops over the southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining South Andaman Sea and is likely to turn into a depression by 24 November. (internal.imd.gov.in)

New alert status and rainfall expectations

The IMD’s tabular forecast shows that from 22 to 26 November, heavy rainfall (7 cm to 11 cm in 24 hours) or more is very likely at one or two places in Kerala and Lakshadweep. (Mausam) On 23 November, a yellow alert (rainfall 64.5–115.5 mm in 24 hours) is already in force for several districts. (Gulf News)

Specifically, the districts under alert include Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki and Ernakulam. (Gulf News)

What is causing the change?

A fresh weather system has formed over the Strait of Malacca and adjoining South Andaman Sea, influenced by an upper-air cyclonic circulation. The IMD states this system “is very likely to move west-north-westwards and intensify into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal on or around 24 November, and eventually into the southwest Bay of Bengal.” (The Economic Times)

As a result of this dynamic shift, Kerala is expected to experience renewed rainfall activity and storm-related conditions for the coming days.

Impacts and advisories

Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds (35–55 km/h or more) are expected. The IMD warns of poor visibility, water-logging, traffic disruptions, tree uprooting and landslide potential in vulnerable hilly areas. (Mausam)

Fishermen along the Kerala and Lakshadweep coasts have been advised not to venture into the sea from Sunday through Tuesday, due to rough seas and squally weather. (Gulf News)

Pilgrims travelling to hills and forested zones are urged to exercise caution, check weather updates before moving and avoid unnecessary travel during heavy showers. Roof-waterlogging, slippery pathways and isolated thunderstorms could pose risks. (Mausam)

What should residents do?

  • Avoid travel in low-lying or vulnerable areas during heavy rain.
  • Stay updated via local bulletins and follow directions of district disaster management authorities.
  • Avoid water-logging, river banks or risky terrain for outdoor activity during rainfall.
  • Secure loose objects; trees and weak roof structures can become hazards under strong winds.
  • Fishermen should report to safe harbour if offshore; avoid going out in squally conditions.

Looking ahead

The system is expected to keep rainfall activity elevated until at least 26 November, with the probability of moderate to heavy showers continuing. While no red alert has been officially issued so far, the evolving weather pattern warrants heightened vigilance. (Mausam)

Conclusion
With Kerala entering another phase of increased rainfall, especially under the influence of a developing system in the Bay of Bengal, the IMD’s revised forecast and upcoming alerts underscore the need for preparedness. Residents, travellers and authorities would do well to stay alert and avoid complacency during these unstable weather conditions.