The National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) has projected that the United States will witness its sharpest decline in international visitors from India this year among its top global tourism markets.
According to the latest forecast by the US Commerce Department, arrivals from India are expected to decline by over 4 per cent in 2026 even as overall international visitor numbers to the US are projected to grow by 3.2 per cent.
India expected to slip in rankings
India was the fourth-largest source market for international visitors to the US in 2025 and the second-largest overseas market after the United Kingdom.
However, the report predicts that Japan and Brazil could overtake India this year, pushing it to the sixth position.
The NTTO report noted that while Indian arrivals are expected to contract in 2026, growth may return from 2027 onwards.
Visa delays and expensive travel impacting demand
Travel industry experts say multiple factors have contributed to weakening demand for US travel among Indians.
These include student visa concerns, reduced flight connectivity after Air India cut certain operations due to airspace restrictions, soaring international airfares, and the weakening Indian rupee.
Industry observers also pointed to rising geopolitical tensions and the impact of conflicts in the Middle East on fuel costs and airline operations.
Travel agents said concerns regarding immigration scrutiny and increasing travel expenses have made many Indian tourists reconsider plans to visit the US.
FIFA World Cup expected to boost US tourism
Despite the expected fall from India, the US overall is projected to receive over 7 crore international visitors in 2026.
The NTTO believes the 2026 FIFA World Cup will significantly boost tourism numbers in the coming years, with international arrivals expected to reach record highs by 2029 and 2030.
The report covers major tourism markets including Canada, Mexico, China, India, the UK, Australia, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Brazil.