Pune, April 29, 2026: The by-election in the Bagalkot Assembly constituency of Karnataka is being seen as a rehearsal for the upcoming 2028 elections. This by-election was necessitated due to the demise of senior Congress MLA H. Y. Meti. Riding on the sympathy factor, the Congress fielded his son, Umesh Meti, while the BJP nominated former MLA Veerbhadra (Veeranna) Charantimath.
Although there was a total of nine candidates in the fray, the main contest was clearly between the Congress and the BJP. The polling, held on April 9, recorded a voter turnout of 68.62%. In the backdrop of the election, our organization, Rudra Research and Analytics, Pune, conducted an on-ground survey in the Bagalkot constituency to gauge voter sentiment. According to the organization’s estimates, Congress candidate Umesh Meti is likely to win in Bagalkot with a margin of 15,012 votes (11%).
Rudra Research Exit Poll
After the by-election in the Bagalkot constituency, Rudra Research conducted an assessment of voter preferences. The findings indicate that Congress candidate Umesh Meti is likely to secure 94,860 votes (53%), while BJP candidate Veerbhadr alias Veeranna Charantimath is expected to receive 79,848 votes (45%). As per the exit poll, Umesh Meti is projected to win by a margin of 15,012 votes (11%).
According to the exit poll, Congress candidate Umesh Meti is expected to receive 32,118 votes (45%) from Bagalkot city and 62,742 votes (59%) from rural areas. In contrast, BJP candidate Veerbhadr alias Veeranna Charantimath is likely to secure 37,828 votes (53%) from Bagalkot city and 42,020 votes (39%) from rural areas.
Impact of Congress Welfare Schemes and Active Campaigning by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah
The welfare schemes implemented by the Congress government in Karnataka appear to have had a significant impact on women and economically weaker sections. Due to effective promotion of these schemes, beneficiary voters seem to have largely inclined towards the Congress.
Additionally, the party succeeded in consolidating support among voters from the Kuruba community.
Chief Minister Siddaramaiah made the Bagalkot by-election a prestige battle and personally led the campaign in the constituency. Through public meetings, rallies, and direct interaction with party workers and voters, he helped create a favorable atmosphere for the Congress.
Campaign by Key Congress Leaders and Sympathy for Late H. Y. Meti
The active campaigning by prominent Congress leaders appears to have benefited the party. Key figures such as Deputy Chief Minister D. K. Shivakumar, Minister Satish Jarkiholi, Minister M. D. Patil, Minister Shivanand Patil, Minister R. B. Timmapur, Minister Vijayanand Kashappanavar, Minister Suresh Bairathi, Minister B. Z. Zameer Ahmed Khan, Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Assembly Rudrappa Lambani, Sanyukta Patil, former Congress women’s president Rakshita Itte, and Yathindra Siddaramaiah played a significant role in campaigning for Congress candidate Umesh Meti.
Following the demise of the constituency’s sitting MLA, the late H. Y. Meti, an emotional wave and sympathy among voters appeared to favor Umesh Meti.
Congress Micro-Planning and Increased Voter Turnout in Rural Areas
Under the leadership of Minister Satish Jarkiholi, the Congress established a well-organized and strategically planned campaign machinery. Dedicated teams were deployed in villages, real time strategies were implemented, and support from external party workers made the campaign more effective. The increased voter turnout among Congress supporters in rural areas worked to the party’s advantage.
While maintaining a strong organizational base in rural areas, the Congress also paid special attention to urban voters. Efforts were made to reach out to traditionally BJP-leaning voters through influential individuals and by organizing meetings for various social groups. The focus was on preventing vote-splitting and attracting undecided (floating) voters. By expanding outreach among Lingayats, women, Dalits, and other communities, the Congress managed to secure a better than expected response even in urban areas.
BJP Hit by Lower-than-Expected Urban Response
In areas such as Bagalkot city, Navanagar, and Vidyagiri, the BJP is generally seen as having a stronger influence compared to the Congress. The BJP candidate pushed an aggressive Hindutva narrative through Basanagouda Patil, which did receive a response from the youth.
However, voter turnout in these areas was lower than expected. Particularly in BJP strongholds like Vidyagiri, the lower voting percentage could prove detrimental to the party. In contrast, higher voter turnout in rural areas appears to have tilted in favor of the Congress.
Effective Congress Campaign Machinery Compared to BJP and Division Among Lingayat Voters
With the Congress in power in the state, the party successfully leveraged the advantages of incumbency to run an effective campaign. A degree of division was observed among Lingayat voters, who have traditionally leaned towards the BJP. Additionally, the Congress made strong efforts to bring BJP-supporting local leaders and party workers to its side and succeeded in attracting a larger section of voters.
Conclusion
According to the estimates of Rudra Research, Congress candidate Umesh Meti appears more likely to win the Bagalkot by-election. This projection is based on several factors: the impact of welfare schemes implemented by the Karnataka government and the resulting support from women and economically weaker sections Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s intensive, on-ground campaigning in the constituency the Congress’s success in effectively utilizing the advantages of being in power; the increased voter turnout in rural areas favoring the Congress the BJP’s inability to secure the expected margin of votes in urban areas; the sympathy factor following the demise of H. Y. Meti and the near one-sided support extended to the Congress by a majority of voters from the Kuruba and Muslim communities in the constituency.
– Rudra Research and Analytics (rudraresearch.in)
(Note: Rudra Research and Analytics, Pune, is an organization engaged in political analysis, the study of electoral trends, as well as conducting pre-poll and post-poll surveys.
Rudra Research and Analytics has prepared an exit poll by interacting face to face with voters in Bagalkot constituency.)
Urban / Rural Wise Trend
| Sr. No. | Location | Umesh Meti (Congress) | Veerabhadrayya Charantimath (BJP) | Others | Turnout | Margin |
| 1 | Bagalkot City | 32118 (45%) | 37828 (53%) | 1427 (2%) | 71373 (100%) | -5710 (-8%) |
| 2 | Rural | 62742 (59%) | 42020 (39%) | 2138 (2%) | 106900 (100%) | 20722 (19%) |
| Total | 94860 (53%) | 79848 (45%) | 3565 (2%) | 178273 (100%) | 15012 (8%) | |
ZP/NP Wise Trend
| Sr. No. | ZP/NP | Turnout (68.62%) | Umesh Meti (Congress) | Veerabhadrayya Charantimath (BJP) | Others | Total | Margin |
| 1 | Bagalkot MC | 71373 | 45% | 53% | 2% | 100% | -8% |
| 2 | Kamatagi NP | 10251 | 60% | 38% | 2% | 100% | 22% |
| 3 | Shirur NP | 9907 | 53% | 45% | 2% | 100% | 8% |
| 4 | Aminghad NP | 9144 | 50% | 48% | 2% | 100% | 2% |
| 5 | Bevoor | 30148 | 62% | 36% | 2% | 100% | 26% |
| 6 | Rampur | 22308 | 62% | 36% | 2% | 100% | 26% |
| 7 | Aihole | 13958 | 62% | 36% | 2% | 100% | 26% |
| 8 | Shirur | 11184 | 50% | 48% | 2% | 100% | 2% |
| Total | 178273 | 53% | 45% | 2% | 100% | 8% | |
Tentative Category Wise Trend
| Sr. No. | Category | Category % | Umesh Meti (Congress) | Veerabhadrayya Charantimath (BJP) | Others | Total |
| 1 | Lingayat | 30% | 27% | 71% | 2% | 100% |
| 2 | SC | 15% | 58% | 40% | 2% | 100% |
| 3 | Kurba | 14% | 72% | 26% | 2% | 100% |
| 4 | Muslim | 14% | 91% | 7% | 2% | 100% |
| 5 | ST | 6% | 53% | 45% | 2% | 100% |
| 6 | Other Hindu | 21% | 45% | 53% | 2% | 100% |
| Total | 100% | 53% | 45% | 2% | 100% | |
Note: Candidates vote share estimates are subject to a ±5% survey margin of error.