Beijing: A report linked to a Chinese research institute has suggested that Beijing increasingly views the United States as a declining dominant power and believes China’s global influence will continue expanding in the coming years. The document has drawn attention after geopolitical commentator Arnaud Bertrand analysed its contents and highlighted what he described as a significant shift in China’s strategic outlook regarding its relationship with Washington.
The report, titled The Great Global Transformation and the Path to US-China Coexistence, was produced by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a research organisation associated with China’s state security system.
Report suggests Beijing sees momentum shifting
According to the analysis, the report argues that China believes broader geopolitical and economic developments are increasingly moving in its favour.
The document reportedly interprets current US-China competition through ideas associated with long-term strategic rivalry, suggesting that China has gradually absorbed economic and political pressure over recent years.
The report reportedly points to factors including trade disputes, technology restrictions, sanctions and tariffs, arguing that China has managed to continue its economic and political trajectory despite these challenges.
Observers noted that the report reflects a belief that global power dynamics may be entering a period of transition.
Economic influence highlighted over military confrontation
According to the analysis, the report does not primarily frame China’s future role through military expansion or direct confrontation.
Instead, emphasis is reportedly placed on economic strength, manufacturing capabilities and technological development as the key drivers of long-term influence.
Analysts suggested that such an approach indicates a strategy centred on increasing global interconnectedness and expanding economic influence rather than pursuing direct conflict.
The report reportedly argues that changes in the international order could gradually occur through broader shifts in economic and political influence.
Tone towards the US described as changing
One of the key observations highlighted in the analysis concerns what was described as a different tone regarding the United States.
According to the interpretation, previous Chinese strategic discussions often reflected concerns about the United States as a major threat.
However, the latest report reportedly places greater emphasis on managing competition and reducing risks rather than viewing relations entirely through a confrontational framework.
Analysts said the document appears to advocate moving towards more structured mechanisms for managing disagreements between the two countries.
Coexistence and communication proposed
The report reportedly proposes maintaining dialogue and expanding cooperation in selected areas despite continuing differences.
Suggestions mentioned in the analysis include restoring communication mechanisms, improving economic coordination and strengthening cooperation on broader international issues.
Areas such as climate policy, artificial intelligence governance and anti-narcotics cooperation were reportedly identified as potential areas of engagement.
However, the report also highlighted Taiwan as a significant area of disagreement and stressed China’s long-standing position on the issue.
Global implications continue to draw attention
Relations between China and the United States remain among the most closely watched geopolitical developments globally due to their influence on trade, technology, security and international policy.
Analysts noted that while strategic documents often reflect long-term thinking rather than immediate policy decisions, such reports can provide insights into how governments and institutions view future global trends.
The evolving relationship between the two powers continues to shape discussions on the future international order and broader geopolitical stability.