Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk has drawn attention to India’s declining fertility rate, stating that the country’s birth rate has fallen below the replacement level and warning that the trend mirrors demographic patterns seen in several other nations.
Musk’s remarks came in response to fertility data shared on social media, reigniting discussions about India’s changing population dynamics and the long-term implications of lower birth rates.
Musk highlights demographic shift
Commenting on recent fertility statistics, Musk noted that India’s fertility rate has dropped below the level required for a population to replace itself over generations.
He also observed that fertility rates among India’s more educated population had fallen below replacement levels years ago, reflecting a trend commonly seen in countries undergoing rapid social and economic development.
His comments have added to the global conversation surrounding declining fertility rates and ageing populations, subjects Musk has frequently discussed in recent years.
Fertility rate falls below replacement level
According to the 2024 Sample Registration System (SRS) report, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 2.1 to 1.9 children per woman.
The replacement fertility level is generally considered to be 2.1 children per woman. This benchmark represents the average number of children needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next without relying on migration.
The latest figures indicate that India has now moved below that threshold, signalling a significant demographic transition.
Most states now below replacement level
The report shows that the majority of Indian states have fertility rates below the replacement benchmark.
Only six states continue to record fertility rates above 2.1 children per woman:
- Bihar
- Uttar Pradesh
- Madhya Pradesh
- Rajasthan
- Chhattisgarh
- Jharkhand
The decline in fertility has been attributed to factors such as higher education levels, urbanisation, improved access to healthcare, greater workforce participation among women and changing family preferences.
Understanding replacement fertility
Demographers define replacement fertility as the level at which a population can maintain its size over time without migration.
TFR=2.1
When fertility rates remain below this level for an extended period, population growth gradually slows and may eventually turn negative.
Countries experiencing prolonged low fertility often face challenges associated with ageing populations, including a shrinking workforce, increased healthcare costs and greater pressure on pension and social welfare systems.
India enters new demographic phase
India remains the world’s most populous country, with a population exceeding 1.46 billion people. However, experts say the country is entering a new phase characterised by slower population growth and smaller family sizes.
The trend was also highlighted in the 2025 United Nations Population Fund State of World Population Report, which estimated India’s fertility rate at 1.9 births per woman.
While population growth continues due to demographic momentum, the pace of growth is expected to moderate in the coming decades if fertility rates remain below replacement levels.
Birth rate and fertility rate are different
Experts note that birth rate and fertility rate are often confused, despite measuring different aspects of population change.
Birth rate refers to the number of live births per 1,000 people in a population during a given year.
Fertility rate, on the other hand, measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime.
Although distinct, the two indicators are closely linked. A sustained decline in fertility rates typically leads to lower birth rates over time, influencing population growth patterns and the age structure of society.
Balancing opportunities and challenges
India’s demographic transition presents both opportunities and challenges. Lower fertility rates are often associated with improvements in education, healthcare and living standards. At the same time, policymakers will need to prepare for the long-term economic and social effects of an ageing population.
As debates over population trends continue globally, Musk’s remarks have once again spotlighted the importance of demographic planning and the changing nature of population growth in India.