New York: Where is US President Donald Trump on attack mode, where is he playing defence? Are there states he did not carry in 2016 that he could pick off in this election and add to his column? The lions share of US election results math is being layered on this rubric.
Bottomline: If Trump does not add any states from the Hillary Clinton column in 2016 and he drops Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it’s game over. That’s why both sides have gone all in on Pennsylvania.
The Trump re-election campaign has been talking a lot about New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Nevada – all Clinton states in 2016.
Coming into Tuesday night, the Trump campaign has been saying they think they have a shot but the polling hasn’t been showing that upside.
In case Trump fails to pick off some of the Clinton states from 2016, that becomes incumbent Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s starting point – which means the place where the former party hopeful finished in 2016. That’s 232 electoral votes.
The action then shifts to states where Biden is on offence. What could he pluck from the Trump 2016 column that puts him on offence?
Connecting all the dots, Trump’s troubles seem centred in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, three states that he won by a hair’s breadth in 2016 – less than one point.
The first couple of hours will give us a good look at Florida trends, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia.
By 11 p.m. EST, we should know Texas too.
All of these were big electoral college battlegrounds won by Trump in 2016. He needs each one of them this time.