Forecasting the result of the secretive papal conclave remains elusive, as cardinal alliances shift with every round. In 2013, few foresaw Jorge Mario Bergoglio ascending as Pope Francis. Now, attention is on several contenders.

Pietro Parolin, 70, Italy: Serving as secretary of state since 2013, Parolin is a diplomatic heavyweight. He’s credited with the China bishop accord, seen by critics as compromising, yet admired for championing peace.

Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, Philippines: Once viewed as Francis’s heir apparent, Tagle’s progressive leanings, particularly on divorce and LGBTQ+ issues, clashed with his conservative opposition to abortion.

Peter Turkson, 76, Ghana: A powerful voice on climate and economic justice, Turkson balances reformist social critiques with fidelity to traditional doctrine. He’d be the first Black pope in modern times.

Péter Erdő, 72, Hungary: A leading conservative, Erdő advocates for doctrinal rigidity. His alignment with Hungarian nationalist policies contrasts sharply with Francis’s inclusivity.

Matteo Zuppi, 69, Italy: A Francis-appointed cardinal, Zuppi has led peace efforts in Ukraine and is seen as a progressive voice, particularly open to LGBTQ+ pastoral care.

José Tolentino de Mendonça, 59, Portugal: A poet-theologian close to Francis, he’s admired for modern outreach but criticized for aligning with feminist and liberal Catholic thinkers.

Mario Grech, 68, Malta: Once traditional, Grech’s openness to female deacons and NGO-friendly stances show his evolution post-Francis.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, Italy: Patriarch of Jerusalem, known for peacemaking, including offering himself as a hostage to Hamas.

Robert Sarah, 79, Guinea: A vocal traditionalist, Sarah opposes gender theory and Islamic extremism, positioning himself firmly against liberal Catholic trends.