Bitcoin was trading at around $64,246, up 1.44% over the previous 24 hours, according to The Economic Times. Ethereum also gained, while several major altcoins recorded modest moves.
The recovery comes after a period of weakness in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin having traded in the low-$63,000 range. Market participants are now watching US economic data and Federal Reserve signals closely to determine whether the latest rebound can develop into a sustained recovery.
Bitcoin recovers towards the $64,000 level
Bitcoin’s move above the $64,000 region represents a modest recovery after the cryptocurrency faced selling pressure in recent sessions.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $64,246 on Tuesday, according to The Economic Times. Over the preceding 24 hours, Bitcoin gained 1.44%.
Ethereum also moved higher, gaining 0.43% to around $1,899.
Among major altcoins, Solana, Tron and Hyperliquid gained up to 1%, while BNB, XRP, Dogecoin and Cardano declined by as much as 1.37%.
The moves indicate that the recovery is not uniform across the crypto market, with investors continuing to distinguish between individual digital assets.
Cooling inflation supports risk assets
One of the biggest factors behind the recovery has been a more favourable inflation outlook in the US.
Cooling inflation can reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy restrictive.
When investors expect fewer or smaller interest-rate increases, financial conditions can become more supportive for riskier assets. Cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations because investors often reassess their exposure to speculative assets when the cost of money changes.
Recent US inflation data has therefore helped ease some concerns around further monetary tightening.
The July inflation report showed headline inflation at 3.4%, compared with 3.5% in June, while core inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.6%. The data was broadly in line with market expectations and contributed to reduced immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
Falling Treasury yields provide additional support
US Treasury yields have also played an important role in the latest Bitcoin recovery.
Lower yields can make riskier investments relatively more attractive by reducing the return investors can obtain from relatively safer government securities.
Avinash Shekhar, co-founder and CEO of Pi42, said Bitcoin’s return towards $64,000 reflected improving sentiment as expectations of further US monetary tightening eased. He also pointed to cooling inflation and declining Treasury yields as factors creating a more supportive liquidity environment for digital assets.
However, the Treasury market remains volatile.
More recent trading has shown that long-term US Treasury yields can still move sharply because of inflation concerns, oil prices and geopolitical developments. Reuters reported on August 18 that the US 30-year Treasury yield had climbed to 5.327%, its highest level since 2007, amid renewed concerns over oil and inflation.
This means the supportive effect of lower yields on Bitcoin could change quickly if inflation expectations rise again.
Crypto market capitalisation rises
The wider cryptocurrency market also showed signs of recovery.
Global crypto market capitalisation increased 0.68% to $2.19 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap data cited by The Economic Times.
The market’s Fear and Greed Index also moved towards neutral territory, reaching 50, according to CoinDCX Research.
A neutral reading suggests that investors are neither displaying extreme optimism nor extreme fear.
That is significant because sentiment has a major influence on short-term cryptocurrency price movements.
Analysts remain cautious about the rebound
Despite Bitcoin’s recovery, market analysts have warned that the move should not yet be interpreted as a confirmed trend reversal.
Riya Sehgal, research analyst at Delta Exchange, said crypto markets had recovered over the previous 24 hours, but the move remained a rebound rather than evidence of a confirmed change in trend.
She noted that Bitcoin had risen from the low-$63,000 region towards $64,500 before facing selling pressure. Ethereum similarly moved higher before encountering resistance.
The comments underline an important distinction for investors.
A short-term price recovery does not necessarily establish a new long-term uptrend.
Bitcoin would need to attract stronger buying activity and maintain higher price levels to demonstrate that the recovery has broader momentum.
$64,500 emerges as key resistance
Technical levels are now becoming increasingly important for Bitcoin traders.
According to CoinSwitch Markets Desk, $64,000 is an important support level, while $64,500 represents immediate resistance.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, said Bitcoin would need to clear the $64,500-$66,000 zone with stronger spot-market activity and sustained ETF demand for the recovery to gain greater credibility.
If Bitcoin can move decisively above that range, traders could interpret the move as evidence that buying pressure is strengthening.
Conversely, failure to hold the $64,000 region could leave the cryptocurrency vulnerable to another decline.
Federal Reserve minutes are the next major trigger
Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee.
The FOMC minutes could provide additional clues about how policymakers view inflation, employment and the path of interest rates.
Markets are particularly sensitive to the possibility of changes in US monetary policy because interest-rate expectations have historically influenced cryptocurrency liquidity and investor appetite.
Avinash Shekhar said upcoming FOMC minutes, inflation data and labour-market indicators would be important in determining whether Bitcoin’s recovery develops into a more sustained move.
Rate-hike expectations have fallen
Expectations surrounding future US interest-rate increases have changed significantly.
Prateek Gupta, head of business at Mudrex, said expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike had fallen to around 30%, from as high as 75% in late July.
He attributed the shift partly to weak retail sales and signs of a softer labour market.
A reduction in rate-hike expectations can provide relief to cryptocurrencies because investors may become more comfortable allocating capital towards assets perceived as higher risk.
However, these expectations can change rapidly when new economic data is released.
Bitcoin remains sensitive to the US dollar
The US dollar is another important factor for Bitcoin.
Nischal Shetty, founder of WazirX, said easing US policy expectations and a weaker dollar were strengthening the outlook for cryptocurrencies.
A weaker dollar can be supportive for assets priced in dollars because international investors may find them relatively more attractive.
Bitcoin’s performance can therefore be influenced by several interconnected variables: inflation, interest rates, Treasury yields, the dollar and broader risk appetite.
This makes macroeconomic data increasingly important for cryptocurrency traders.
ETF outflows remain a concern
Despite the improving price action, institutional flows remain a source of concern.
Shetty pointed out that institutional ETF activity had moderated during the previous week.
US spot Bitcoin funds recorded $389.7 million in net outflows, their largest weekly withdrawal in roughly six weeks, according to data cited by The Economic Times.
ETF flows have become an important indicator of institutional demand for Bitcoin.
Strong inflows can provide additional buying pressure, while sustained outflows can make it more difficult for Bitcoin to maintain an upward trend.
The recent outflows therefore suggest that institutional conviction has not fully recovered despite the improvement in Bitcoin’s price.
Trading volumes remain a warning sign
Another concern is the level of on-chain activity.
Subburaj said the latest on-chain picture remained cautious, pointing to contracting spot volumes and transaction throughput.
According to him, these indicators suggest weak liquidity and limited market conviction.
This is important because a price increase supported by strong trading activity is generally considered more convincing than a rise occurring on relatively weak volume.
If Bitcoin manages to move above resistance while spot volumes increase, it could provide stronger evidence of renewed demand.
Altcoins show mixed performance
Bitcoin’s recovery has not translated into uniform gains across the altcoin market.
Over the past week, Bitcoin and Ethereum were up 0.28% and 0.18%, respectively, according to data cited by The Economic Times.
Among major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Dogecoin and Cardano had declined by as much as 8.30%, while Solana, Tron and Hyperliquid had gained as much as 8.48%.
The divergence highlights the different factors affecting individual cryptocurrency projects.
Bitcoin continues to attract the greatest attention from institutional investors, while altcoins can experience much greater volatility based on market sentiment, liquidity and project-specific developments.
Geopolitical risks remain in the background
The improving inflation picture is not the only macroeconomic factor affecting markets.
Geopolitical tensions are continuing to influence oil prices, bond yields and broader risk sentiment.
Reuters reported on August 18 that escalating tensions involving the US and Iran had pushed oil prices higher and contributed to renewed inflation concerns. The US 30-year Treasury yield also reached its highest level since 2007.
Higher oil prices can feed into inflation, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy decisions.
That creates a potential headwind for Bitcoin.
If investors begin expecting tighter monetary policy because of renewed inflationary pressure, risk assets could come under pressure again.
Crypto recovery remains fragile
The current Bitcoin move therefore presents a mixed picture.
On the positive side, inflation has shown signs of cooling, expectations of immediate monetary tightening have eased and Bitcoin has recovered towards $64,000.
On the negative side, ETF outflows, weak spot volumes and geopolitical uncertainty remain concerns.
The market is also approaching a technically important resistance zone.
This combination means investors are likely to remain highly responsive to new economic and policy signals.
What Bitcoin investors will watch next
Several developments could determine Bitcoin’s next major move.
The first is the upcoming FOMC minutes, which could provide further clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.
The second is additional US inflation data.
The third is labour-market data, particularly if it provides evidence that the US economy is slowing.
Investors will also monitor Treasury yields, the US dollar, Bitcoin ETF flows and spot trading volumes.
Together, these indicators could determine whether the current recovery develops into a broader rally or fades into another period of consolidation.
Bitcoin faces a key test above $64,000
Bitcoin’s move towards $64,000 is encouraging for investors who had been concerned about the recent decline.
However, the cryptocurrency still faces a significant test around $64,500 and higher.
Breaking through resistance with strong buying volume could strengthen the bullish case.
Failure to do so could leave Bitcoin trading within its recent range.
The market’s reaction to Federal Reserve signals will be particularly important because the cryptocurrency remains closely tied to global liquidity conditions.
Conclusion
Bitcoin has recovered towards $64,000, trading around $64,246 on August 18, as cooling US inflation, lower interest-rate expectations and recent changes in Treasury yields improved sentiment across cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin gained 1.44% over 24 hours, while Ethereum and selected altcoins also moved higher.
However, analysts remain cautious about calling the move a sustained trend reversal. Bitcoin needs to hold above the $64,000 support area and overcome $64,500-$66,000 with stronger spot-market activity to establish stronger momentum.
The cryptocurrency market is also facing mixed signals. Global crypto market capitalisation has risen to $2.19 trillion, but US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $389.7 million in net outflows in the previous week.
For now, investors are likely to focus on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC minutes, future inflation figures, labour-market data and Treasury yields. Geopolitical risks and oil prices could also influence the inflation outlook and, in turn, expectations for US monetary policy.
Bitcoin’s latest rebound therefore offers signs of recovery, but the next move could depend heavily on whether macroeconomic conditions continue to support risk assets.