: The Trump administration’s $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas may reduce immigrant work authorisations by as many as 5,500 per month, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. While small relative to the overall US labour market, the measure is expected to disproportionately affect technology firms and Indian workers.
Impact on IT sector and Indian nationals
H-1B data for FY24 show that nearly two-thirds of approvals were for computer-related roles, with 50% tied to professional, scientific, and technical services. Around 71% of approved petitions were for Indian nationals.
Of the 141,000 H-1B petitions approved last year for new employment, roughly 65,000 were processed abroad. Economists warn that these overseas cases are most vulnerable to the fee.
“If all of them were to stop, it would reduce work authorisation for immigrants by up to 5,500 per month, unless immigrants are able to use other visa categories to get employment,” JPMorgan economists wrote.
Experts such as Loujaina Abdelwahed, senior economist at Revelio Labs, said the fee hike is “effectively equivalent to dismantling the H-1B system,” potentially eliminating up to 140,000 new jobs annually in US firms that rely on foreign talent.
Broader labour market effects
The US labour market has already slowed, with just 29,000 payrolls added monthly on average over the past three months. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently noted a “marked slowing” in worker supply and demand, partly due to lower immigration. Bloomberg Economics predicts the fee will favour higher-paying jobs in technology, finance, and healthcare while squeezing out lower-paid positions in sectors like education.
Legal scrutiny and state response
California Attorney General Rob Bonta criticised the fee, citing “uncertainty and unpredictability” for businesses dependent on skilled workers. His office is reviewing whether the policy violates the Administrative Procedure Act, which requires reasoned justification and public notice for new rules.
“We wouldn’t be here without the talent that has come to California on these visas,” Bonta said, emphasising the need for policy certainty.
If found unlawful, Bonta indicated that legal challenges could follow. The H-1B programme remains crucial for US tech, finance, and consulting firms to bring in skilled foreign workers.