As Bihar awaits the final verdict in the high-stakes 2025 Assembly election, all eyes are on the fierce contest between incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial face Tejashwi Yadav. With votes being counted for 243 Assembly seats, the state braced for a decisive moment in a poll widely viewed as a battle between continuity and ‘parivartan’ (change).

This election witnessed an unprecedented 67% voter turnout, the highest in the state’s history, marking a dramatic surge in public participation. Notably, more women voted than men, signalling a possible shift in electoral dynamics that could reshape the final outcome.

High-voltage campaign sets the stage

The election campaign saw aggressive involvement from top national leaders across party lines.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, and other prominent figures toured the state to woo voters. The build-up was marked by sharp rhetoric, ground-level mobilisation, and framing the election as a referendum on governance, employment, law and order, and Bihar’s development trajectory.

Mahagathbandhan’s Tejashwi Yadav repeatedly stressed the need for change, asserting that the youth and women were demanding a new leadership model for Bihar. In an interview with India Today’s Rajdeep Sardesai, Yadav said:

“I’m always ready. If you want to discuss law and order, then let’s debate on data. And the data clearly shows that since Nitish Kumar became Chief Minister, crime has increased.”

His confidence was echoed by his alliance partners, who predicted a sweeping mandate. Yadav reportedly told his workers that “Diya ki atharah ko uth lenge”, suggesting that 18 November—the expected date for government formation—would mark a turning point.

Nitish Kumar faces a crucial ‘sunset election’

For Nitish Kumar, who has served nearly two decades as Bihar’s Chief Minister, the 2025 polls were projected as a legacy-defining contest. Analysts dubbed it a “sunset election” not only for Nitish but also for RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav, as generational shifts emerged strongly across parties.

The NDA camp, featuring Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Deputy Chief Ministers Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, campaigned on the back of governance reforms, welfare schemes, women’s empowerment measures, and promises of continued stability.

Inside the BJP headquarters on counting day, anticipation ran high. The party expressed cautious optimism even as reports indicated a neck-and-neck race in several constituencies.

Key constituencies under the spotlight

Several high-profile battles have dominated public attention:

  • Raghopur: Tejashwi Yadav’s stronghold
  • Tarapur: A contest closely watched for its swing potential
  • Mahua: Tej Pratap Yadav’s battleground
  • Chhapra: Featuring BJP’s Maithili Thakur
  • Other seats: Film star and politician Khesari Lal Yadav added star power to the polls

Early trends suggested tight races in multiple constituencies, with both alliances deploying teams of observers and legal experts across counting centres.

Nitish vs Paswan dynamics resurface

The election also carries significant implications for Chirag Paswan, now a Union Minister and key figure in the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). The long-standing friction between Nitish Kumar’s JDU and the LJP remains a defining subtext of Bihar’s shifting political geometry.

India Today’s Bihar Bureau Chief Rohit Singh captured the prevailing sentiment:

“Elections in Bihar, results in Bihar—the most unpredictable.”

This unpredictability has added further suspense as counting progresses.

What lies ahead

Whether voters chose continuity under Nitish Kumar or opted for Tejashwi Yadav’s promise of change will shape Bihar’s political landscape for years to come. With both alliances confident and early trends showing fluctuating leads, the final verdict is expected to be tight and intensely scrutinised.

As counting continues, Bihar stands on the threshold of a potential political transformation—one that could redefine leadership, governance priorities, and the socio-political balance in the state.