Mumbai: Nilesh Shah, Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company (AMC), has expressed optimism about the Indian equity markets in the upcoming Samvat 2082, highlighting consumption and mid-cap IT as potential “firecrackers” for investors.
Shah believes that domestic consumption remains the key growth driver, with government-led stimulus measures expected to funnel liquidity into households, borrowers, and employees. He cited income tax cuts, GST relief amounting to Rs 1.96 lakh crore annually, interest rate-driven EMI reductions, and possible payouts from the 8th Pay Commission in CY 2027 as factors likely to boost spending, particularly on swadeshi goods and services.
Lessons from the outgoing Samvat
Reflecting on the period from Diwali 2024 to Diwali 2025, Shah noted that the past Samvat was marked by resilience amid headwinds. The Nifty delivered modest 4–6 per cent gains, lagging global peers due to persistent foreign portfolio investor (FPI) and promoter selling, high valuations, and single-digit earnings growth over six quarters.
“DIIs and retail investors countered with steady SIP buying, buoyed by India’s intact long-term story,” Shah said. He underscored the importance of bottom-up stock selection and maintaining cash buffers during market corrections. “Flows dictate near-term swings, fundamentals evolve slowly but prevail long-term, and complacency on earnings is the real peril,” he added.
Tailwinds and headwinds for Samvat 2082
Shah expects more tailwinds than headwinds for the new Samvat. Domestic vigour, supported by stimulus-driven consumption, weak USD, US policy chaos, and overvaluation in US markets, could attract foreign flows to India. Reforms promoting entrepreneurship and a fair Indo-US tariff deal may further bolster private capital expenditure.
Key headwinds include potential FPI selling, high IPO supply, and promoter caution. Stagnant earnings, escalating US tariffs, and valuation pressures remain risks that could temper returns.
Sectors poised for growth
Consumption remains the “sparkling firecracker,” with discretionary pockets likely to benefit sectors such as travel, tourism, home upgrades, health, and education. Mid-cap IT stocks also show promise, driven by AI-led efficiency gains, with H1B visa concerns mitigated by exemptions. Shah sees recent market corrections as opportunities for bottom-up buying amid global uncertainty.
Advice for new investors
Shah advises new investors to enter the market with discipline, rather than succumbing to festival-driven euphoria. He recommends diversified asset allocation across debt, equity, real estate, and precious metals. “Celebrate Diwali’s light but invest like it’s a marathon—steady wins,” he said.
Global risks and gold outlook
On international risks, Shah highlighted that US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could continue to affect exports and FPIs, creating volatility in Samvat 2082. Regarding gold, he expects continued strong performance if central banks maintain purchases, noting that gold and silver serve as alternative growth assets amid fiat currency concerns.
Conclusion
Overall, Shah’s outlook for Samvat 2082 is cautiously optimistic. While domestic consumption and mid-cap IT could drive growth, vigilance on earnings, global policy risks, and market valuations will be crucial for sustained investor confidence.