New Delhi: The BJP secured 10 per cent or more votes on nine Lok Sabha seats in Kerala in 2014 but barring Thiruvananthapuram, it came nowhere near even the victory mark. However, in 2019, riding on the Sabarimala sentiment, the party sees a realistic chance for itself on at least four seats — Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Pathanamthitta and Kasargod.
An analysis of the 2014 Lok Sabha results shows that the party just stopped short of opening its account in the state when its candidate O. Rajagopal came second against Shashi Tharoor of the Congress in Thiruvananthapuram. Rajagopal had polled 32.09 per cent votes while Tharoor had got 34.09 per cent.
This time, the BJP has fielded former Mizoram Governor Kummanam Rajasekharan from Thiruvananthapuram, who is putting up a strong fight in the post-Sabarimala environment. LDF candidate C. Divakaran is a popular Minister, making it a high-profile contest as all three candidates have a strong presence.
The BJP is sensing a chance in Pathanamthitta as well which was the hotbed of the Sabarimala agitation against the Supreme Court decision to allow entry of menstruating women into the temple ending the age-old tradition.
The BJP has fielded K. Surendran, who spearheaded the protests last year, from Pathanamthitta. The party had got 15.95 per cent votes on the seat in 2014, one of the highest after Thiruvananthapuram and Kasargod.
The Congress has fielded sitting MP Anto Antony, who is also a popular face. He had secured 41.19 per cent votes in 2014.
But it will be an uphill task for the BJP as past results show that in Kerala the winning candidates have mostly got around 40 per cent votes barring in a few seats like Thiruvananthapuram where Shashi Tharoor got considerably less.
The BJP is banking on the polarisation of Hindu votes to make an impact in Kerala which is dominated by the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF).
The party’s vote share across the state was around 10 per cent, which went up to around 14 per cent in the 2016 Assembly elections.
The BJP has tied up with Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), a rightwing party, which is contesting from Waynad against Congress President Rahul Gandhi, Alathur, Idukki and Mavelikkara. Kerala Congress (T), another BJP ally in the state, is contesting from Kottayam.
In 2014, the Congress had won 8 seats while its partners IUML had won 2 and KECM 1. The CPI-M got 5 seats, ILDF won 2 and CPI got 1. RSP got one.
Seats where BJP had 10 per cent or more vote share in 2014:
1. Pathanamthitta
BJP’s M.T. Ramesh got 15.95 per cent votes and came third
The winner was Anto Antony of the INC with 41.19 per cent votes
Candidates in 2019:
Congress has placed bets on Anto Antony again
The BJP has fielded K Surendran who had spearheaded the campaign against the SC verdict on Sabarimala. Pattanmittha was the centre of Sabarimala agitation.
The Left has fielded sitting MLA Veena George of CPI-M
2. Ernakulam
BJP’s A.N. Radhakrishnan got 11.63 per cent votes and came third
The winner was Prof. K.V. Thomas of INC winning 41.58 per cent of votes
Candidates in 2019:
Congress has fielded sitting MLA Hibi Eden
CPI-M has fielded P. Rajeev, a former Rajya MP and one of the most popular faces
BJP has made union Minister K.J. Alphons as a candidate
3. Chalakudy
BJP’s B. Gopalakrishnan got 10.41 per cent votes
The winner was Innocent of CPI-M with 40.50 per cent votes
P.C. Chacko of INC secured 38.93 per cent votes
Candidates in 2019:
The Congress has fielded Benny Behanan, a two-time legislator
The CPI-M’s candidate is again Innocent, a popular actor and comedian
BJP has fielded A.N. Radhakrishnan
4. Thiruvananthapuram
BJP’s O. Rajagopal got 32.09 per cent votes in 2014 and came second
The winner was Shashi Tharoor of INC who got 34.09 per cent of votes
Candidates in 2019
The most-watched contest in the state as all three candidates are strong as the BJP came closest to win its first Lok Sabha seat in Kerala from here in 2014.
Congress has renominated Shashi Tharoor
CPI has fielded high-profile Minister C. Divakaran
BJP’s candidate is former Mizoram Governor Rajasekharan
5. Attingal
BJP’s Girja Kumar got 10.53 per cent of votes
The winner was A. Sampath of CPI-M with 45.67 per cent votes
Bindu Krishna of Congress got 37.60 per cent of votes
Candidates in 2019:
Congress has fielded Adoor Prakash, a popular MLA from Konni
CPI-M has fielded A. Sampath, the sitting MP
BJP has fielded Sobha Surendran, a national executive member of BJP
6. Kasargod
BJP’s K. Surendran got 17.72 per cent votes
The Winner was P. Karunakaran of CPI-M with 39.48 per cent votes
Siddique of Congress got 38.72 per cent votes
Candidates in 2019:
Congress has fielded Rajmohan Unnithan
CPI-M has fielded K.P. Satheesh Chandran
BJP’s candidate is Raveesh Thanti Kuntar
7. Palakkad
BJP’s Sobha Surendran got 15 per cent of votes
The winner was M.B. Rajesh of CPI-M with 45.35 per cent votes
M.P. Veerendrakumar of Socialist Janata (Democratic) Party got 33.78 per cent votes
Candidates in 2019
Congress candidate is V.K. Sreekandan
CPI-M has fielded M.B. Rajesh again
BJP has fielded C. Krishnakumar
8. Thrissur
BJP’s K.P. Sreesan got 11.15 per cent votes
The winner was C. N Jayaderan of CPI with 42.27 per cent votes
Candidates in 2019:
Congress candidate is T.N. Prathapan
BJP’s candidate is actor Suresh Gopi
Rajaji Mathew Thomas is contesting for CPI
9. Kozhikode
BJP’s C.K. Padmanabhan got 12.27 per cent votes
The winner was M.K. Raghavan of Congress with 42.15 votes
Candidates in 2019:
Congress — M.K. Raghavan, the popular sitting MP
BJP — Advocate K.P. Prakash Babu, who was jailed recently for allegedly attacking women during Sabarimala protests
CPI-M — A. Pradeep Kumar, a three-time MLA
