The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday that India is likely to receive above-average monsoon rains in 2024, with the monsoon rains forecasted at 106 percent of the long-term average. IMD’s Deputy Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that El Nino is weakening and expected to enter a neutral stage by the onset of the monsoon season. Additionally, La Nina weather conditions, typically associated with good monsoons in India, are anticipated to develop during the latter part of the monsoon season, around August and September.
Historical data from 1951 to 2023 indicates that India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event. According to IMD’s forecasts, above-normal seasonal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except for some areas in northwest, east, and northeastern India, where below-normal rainfall is predicted. Specifically, below-normal rainfall has been forecasted for Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
However, it’s worth noting that IMD’s April monsoon forecasts have historically exhibited a deviation of about 7% in the past decade. In 2023, for instance, rainfall across India during the monsoon season was 94 percent of its long-period average. Additionally, there was a slight discrepancy between the predicted and actual onset of the monsoon over Kerala in 2023.
Acknowledging these discrepancies, IMD reported that its predictions regarding the impact of El Nino on the monsoon season were largely accurate. Furthermore, private weather forecasting agency Skymet has also forecasted a ‘normal’ monsoon for India between June and September 2024, with monsoon rains expected to be 102 percent of the long-period average.
The accuracy of monsoon forecasts is crucial for policymakers as it can significantly impact inflation rates. A normal monsoon typically leads to more controlled inflation, while disruptions due to climate shocks can negatively affect inflation rates. With forecasts suggesting a seemingly favorable outlook for the monsoon season, there is optimism that food inflation, which was a concern last year, may ease if the monsoon turns out to be normal this year.
