According to a recent announcement by private weather forecaster Skymet Weather on Tuesday, the upcoming monsoon season in India, which plays a crucial role in the nation’s economy by contributing approximately 70% of its annual rainfall, is anticipated to be “normal.” The forecast suggests that rainfall is expected to be around 102% of the long period average (LPA), with a margin of error of +/-5%. The LPA for the June to September period stands at 868.6mm, and rainfall within the range of 96-104% of LPA is considered normal.
Skymet Weather indicated various probabilities for the upcoming monsoon season, stating a 10% chance of excess rainfall (more than 110% of LPA), 20% chance of above-normal rainfall (between 105% to 110% of LPA), 45% chance of normal rainfall (between 96 to 104% of LPA), 15% chance of below-normal rainfall (between 90 to 95% of LPA), and 10% chance of drought (rainfall less than 90% of LPA).
Jatin Singh, the managing director of Skymet, explained the meteorological phenomena influencing the monsoon, highlighting the transition from El Nino to La Nina. He mentioned the historical correlation between strong La Nina and favorable monsoon conditions but cautioned about potential initial disruptions due to the lingering effects of El Nino.
Skymet Weather also mentioned a preliminary forecast of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which alongside El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is expected to affect the monsoon season positively. However, they anticipated a disrupted start to the season due to the swift transition from El Nino to La Nina, with rainfall distribution likely to be uneven throughout the season.
Regarding the impact of El Nino, the World Meteorological Organization reported its peak strength, but Indian experts believe it won’t significantly affect the monsoon season. Typically, the monsoon arrives in Kerala around June 1 and progresses northwards, covering the entire country by July 15. Given that a substantial portion of India’s agriculture relies on rain-fed farming, the monsoon’s timely arrival and distribution are critical factors.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) determines the onset of monsoon in Kerala based on specific criteria, including rainfall measurements from selected weather stations over consecutive days after May 10.
Read More :
