India’s Earthquake Wake-Up Call: The Himalayan Time Bomb Ticks

For decades, scientists have warned of a massive earthquake brewing beneath the Himalayan belt — a seismic event that could devastate northern India and beyond. Known as the Great Himalayan Earthquake, this looming threat is not speculative, but inevitable.

Renowned geophysicist Roger Bilham explains that India slides about 2 meters under southern Tibet every 100 years. But instead of moving smoothly, tectonic plates get stuck for centuries. When the pressure is finally released, it erupts as an earthquake — sudden, violent, and catastrophic. “It’s not a possibility. It must happen,” he says.

It’s been over 70 years since the last major quake in the region. The Himalayan arc is now ripe for a massive event — possibly magnitude 8.2 or even 8.9 — far stronger than the 2015 Nepal quake (7.8). If that happens, over 300 million people could be exposed to sustained, violent shaking.

Recent events have only amplified these fears. On March 28, Myanmar was rocked by a 7.7-magnitude quake along the Sagaing Fault, killing over 2,700 people. The energy released was equivalent to 300 atomic bombs. India, where 59% of the land is seismically active, cannot afford to ignore this warning.

States like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, and the entire Northeast fall in high-risk zones. Even megacities like Delhi and Kolkata sit on dangerous fault lines. A 4.0 tremor recently shook Delhi, with its epicentre right in Dhaula Kuan.

Despite the knowledge, India’s disaster readiness lags behind countries like Japan or Chile. Earthquake-resilient building codes do exist under BIS guidelines, but enforcement is weak. Many buildings are poorly constructed and unprepared.

Positive initiatives have begun — cities like NOIDA have partnered with IIT-Kanpur and other institutions for structural audits. However, India faces a severe shortage of trained seismic safety professionals. This gap must be addressed through certifications, training programs, and mentorships.

To prepare, India must:

• Retrofit old and weak buildings

Bilham warns that such a colossal quake will be unprecedented — not because of its magnitude alone, but because it may strike on land, where millions live.

We cannot prevent the quake — but we can prevent a tragedy. The time to act is now.

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