Iran’s fractured opposition is facing a critical juncture. With Israeli airstrikes shaking the country’s security apparatus, many exiled activists and separatist factions are calling for mass protests. But inside Iran, the fear of war has suppressed momentum rather than ignited it.
While the Islamic Republic appears vulnerable — perhaps more than at any point since the 1979 revolution — the calls for uprising face hesitation from within. Many Iranians, even those who oppose the regime, are prioritizing survival over revolt.
Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi calls this “our moment in history,” but activists who braved past uprisings say the climate is too dangerous. Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi and long-imprisoned activist Atena Daemi both warned against further chaos, noting that strikes have displaced people and stirred panic, not protest.
The opposition outside Iran — including Pahlavi’s monarchists and the controversial People’s Mujahideen Organisation (MEK) — remains fragmented and mistrusted by many Iranians. Historical wounds, such as MEK’s support for Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war, still shape public sentiment.
Within the country, past protest waves have had varied motivations — electoral fraud (2009), economic hardship (2017), and women’s rights (2022). But with no unified agenda or clear leadership today, and widespread fatigue from repression, the current moment may prove too volatile for coordinated resistance.
As Israeli strikes continue and regime loyalists brace for unrest, Iran’s domestic opposition faces a dilemma: whether to act now amid chaos or wait for a more stable opening — a decision that may shape the country’s political future.