New Delhi: Rains in north-west India are, as of July 21, eight percent more than what the region usually gets between June 1 -the onset of the monsoon–and late July and this is despite the El Nino effect which predicted deficient rainfall.
India’s worst drought in 37 years in 2009 took place in an El Nino year. Food prices shot up by an annual 20%, leading to persistently high inflation for years.
This year, the national weather office has forecasted a 12% deficiency in the monsoon, but Skymet, a private agency differed sharply and predicted normal rainfall. Rainfall so far in July has been 7% below normal.
The forecast of all the Mets in India – Public and Private, is that there are more rains to come, though some forecasts say it will be deficient in August. Looks like nobody has a clue. At first they said that the EL Nino factor would kick in and rains would be deficient – the opposite has been the case so far and none can explain.
Good news for Indian agriculture, no doubt. Also India’s dams and reservoirs have filled up.
In 2014, rainfall was lower by 11.9% than the 50-year average and it was an El Nino year. But previously too El Nino has caused deficient rainfall and high inflation. This year is a puzzle.
For the first half of 2015 land and sea-surface temperatures were the warmest in 136 years of records. Though 4-in-10 El Nino years see normal monsoon, this year’s rainfall despite the effect, has the experts confused to say the least.
“We can’t completely understand what is happening,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune.
