Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arrival in India on Thursday carries substantial geopolitical significance, coming nearly four years after his last visit and at a time when global politics has shifted dramatically. His previous trip in 2021, shortened by the pandemic, occurred when Russia and India were reaffirming their strategic partnership. Just months later, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reshaped international relations, isolated Moscow diplomatically and redefined how global powers engaged with the Kremlin.
Today, Putin’s visit to New Delhi is seen by analysts as both symbolic and strategic: a sign that Russia seeks to reassert its international relevance, and that India is determined to maintain its multi-aligned foreign policy despite mounting Western pressure.
A visit charged with symbolism
For Russia, the visit demonstrates a clear attempt to return to “normal” international diplomacy, said Petr Topychkanov, senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
“The importance lies primarily in the fact that it is happening at all,” he noted, calling it a signal that Russia no longer fears political isolation.
Putin arrives after rejecting a US-led peace proposal on Ukraine, buoyed by recent battlefield gains that Moscow believes have strengthened its negotiating position. His decision to travel — rare since the invasion — underscores India’s important place in Russia’s diplomatic priorities.
India’s delicate strategic balancing
For India, the stakes are even higher. Aparna Pande, director of the India and South Asia Initiative at the Hudson Institute, argues that India faces its most challenging geopolitical climate in years:
“A semi-isolationist America, a weaker Russia and a very powerful China.”
India’s foreign policy has long embraced multi-alignment, seeking to maintain relationships with competing global powers. However, under US President Donald Trump’s second term, India–US relations have deteriorated sharply. Trump has repeatedly accused India of “bankrolling Russia” through discounted oil purchases and imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian imports — the most significant downturn in bilateral ties in years.
Reflecting the delicate diplomatic environment, the French, German and UK envoys to India published an opinion piece titled “Russia doesn’t seem serious about peace” on the eve of Putin’s arrival. India’s foreign ministry responded sharply, stating it was “not an acceptable diplomatic practice” to publicly advise India on its relations with third countries.
Russia, China and India’s regional challenges
Though Russia is often described in Delhi as a long-standing and trusted partner, analysts emphasise that India’s primary strategic concern remains China. The simmering border tensions along India’s northern and north-eastern frontier have reinforced the need for a reliable continental counterbalance.
Pande argues that India has historically depended on Russia to moderate China’s behaviour, especially during periods of heightened tension. Yet Russia’s increasingly close relationship with Beijing — framed as a “no-limits partnership” — has unsettled Indian policymakers.
India’s challenge, she said, is to prevent Russia from drifting too deeply into China’s orbit and to retain Moscow as a strategic balancing force.
“From India’s side, the real reason this relationship matters is geography.”
Defence ties evolve but remain central
Defence cooperation remains a core pillar of the bilateral relationship. For decades, nearly 70% of India’s defence equipment originated from Russia. Over the past four years, this has declined to under 40% as India diversifies its suppliers and increases domestic production under ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’.
Still, major defence discussions are expected during the summit, including potential deals involving the S-400 air defence systems and Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jets. Pande noted that India will aim to “retain enough Russian weaponry to preserve the alliance, but not so much that it becomes vulnerable if Moscow bows to Chinese pressure.”
She added that despite friendly optics — the bear hugs and golf-cart rides often associated with Modi–Putin diplomacy — the relationship is grounded firmly in realpolitik.
Energy cooperation under pressure
Economic engagements, particularly in oil and gas, are also likely to feature prominently. India has maintained its stance on continuing to purchase Russian oil, even as Western sanctions tighten. However, new US and EU restrictions have deterred private Indian companies, prompting a slowdown in imports.
To offset tensions with Washington, India has agreed to increase purchases of US oil and gas.
Meanwhile, Russian officials maintain confidence that cooperation will endure. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged “obstacles” but predicted only brief disruptions, insisting that Russia has alternative mechanisms to navigate sanctions.
Ukraine unlikely to dominate discussions
While the Ukraine conflict remains central to global diplomacy, analysts expect only limited discussion between Modi and Putin. India continues to call for peace and dialogue, but Pande notes that New Delhi lacks significant leverage over either Moscow or Kyiv.
“Aside from asking both countries to talk, India doesn’t have the ability to move the needle,” she said.