New Delhi: President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit India this week, marking his first trip since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The visit underscores the enduring defense and energy ties between the two countries, even as New Delhi navigates pressure from the United States and seeks to finalise a trade agreement with Washington. For Moscow, the visit offers an opportunity to demonstrate that it still maintains meaningful partnerships beyond the West, while India aims to reaffirm its strategic independence on the global stage.
India-Russia relations amid global tensions
India’s economic and political engagement with Russia traces back to the Soviet era. Despite US sanctions and pressure aimed at curbing India’s purchase of Russian oil and military hardware, New Delhi has maintained a cautious yet pragmatic stance. India continues to call for a halt to the Ukraine conflict while refusing to jeopardise its long-standing partnership with Moscow.
Experts note that India’s approach is designed to deepen ties with “middle powers” like Russia, Japan, the UAE, and the European Union, balancing relations with the US and China. Pramit Pal Chaudhuri of Eurasia Group said, “It helps India that President Trump has already ended Putin’s pariah status by holding his Alaska Summit.”
Focus on trade and energy
Both sides have framed the visit around trade, though energy and defence will be central topics. India is expected to negotiate oil deals that balance its need for inexpensive crude with US tariff and sanction pressures. Historically a minor importer of Russian oil, India became the largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude following the 2022 Ukraine invasion and the G7-imposed price cap. Trump’s recent sanctions on Russian oil firms have reduced shipments, even as discounted Urals crude offers India its lowest prices in two years.
Putin is likely to discuss how Russian oil supplies can continue to flow to India, potentially involving payments in rupees. India, meanwhile, aims to expand exports of marine products, agricultural goods, and other items to Russia, while also facilitating employment opportunities for Indian workers there.
Defense and strategic cooperation
Defense ties remain a crucial aspect of India-Russia relations. India is considering the purchase of Su-57 fighter jets and the advanced S-500 missile defense shield. Despite diversifying procurement towards the US and European countries, Russia remains India’s largest supplier of military hardware, with over 200 fighter jets and multiple air-defense batteries already deployed. Any future deals will need to navigate sanctions and Russia’s wartime production constraints.
India also continues to rely on Russian equipment for national security, as highlighted during the four-day clash with Pakistan in May. The Modi government has expressed its intent to maintain a balanced defense procurement policy, sourcing from both Russia and the US.
Expanding bilateral trade
The visit aims to raise bilateral trade from the current $68 billion to $100 billion by 2030. Both nations are expected to discuss facilitating transactions in local currencies, strengthening trade in goods, and encouraging private sector involvement. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov highlighted that agreements could also cover workforce mobility and improved market access for Indian exporters.
Challenges remain, as Indian goods face stiff competition from Russian and Chinese products, limiting the immediate scope for exports. Nonetheless, India sees the visit as an opportunity to consolidate economic ties and enhance its geopolitical influence.
Diplomatic backdrop
The visit occurs against the backdrop of US-led diplomatic efforts on Ukraine, with Putin recently holding talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on a new peace plan. European ambassadors in New Delhi have expressed criticism of Russia’s war, indirectly reinforcing India’s long-held position advocating negotiations.
Putin has emphasised deepening ties with India and China, pledging to raise bilateral relations to a “qualitatively new level” and discussing trade expansion, including increased imports of Indian goods into Russia.
Conclusion
President Putin’s visit represents a strategic balancing act for India, allowing it to maintain a critical defense and energy partnership with Russia while pursuing closer economic and diplomatic engagement with the US. The discussions on oil, defense procurement, and bilateral trade could have long-term implications for India’s geopolitical positioning and global economic strategy, reinforcing its independent foreign policy stance.