India’s telecom industry is gearing up for a major shift as leading operators—Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea (Vi)—prepare for a recharge plan price hike of up to 10%, marking the first significant revision since 2024. While no formal announcements have been made, industry experts and pricing trends strongly suggest that the telecom giants are paving the way for higher tariffs to strengthen profitability and improve average revenue per user (ARPU).
Subtle strategy to boost ARPU
Over the past several months, both Jio and Airtel have been silently phasing out lower-tier prepaid plans, particularly those offering 1 GB of data per day. This strategic move has effectively nudged consumers toward higher-value data packs, with the new entry-level plans starting at around ₹299 for 1.5 GB per day—roughly 17% higher than the earlier ₹249 tier.
Vodafone Idea, however, still retains its 1 GB-per-day plan priced at ₹299, making it one of the last major players to offer a relatively affordable option at that level.
This restructuring points to a deliberate effort to gradually raise customer spending without officially announcing a price hike, ensuring sustained growth in ARPU—a crucial metric for the heavily capital-intensive telecom sector.
Why a tariff hike seems inevitable
Both Airtel and Vi have repeatedly voiced the need for “tariff repair” to maintain financial viability amid soaring investments in 5G rollouts and network modernisation. Instead of a direct increase, the operators appear to be testing consumer response by limiting low-cost options and promoting higher-tier plans.
Industry observers note that this slow and steady approach gives telcos flexibility while cushioning customer reaction. A 10% tariff hike, if implemented, could significantly bolster revenues and help offset mounting operational costs, especially in light of spectrum payments and infrastructure expansion.
Jio’s approach: growth through consumption
Reliance Jio, India’s largest telecom operator, reported an ARPU of ₹211.4 in Q2 FY26, a modest increase from ₹208.8 in the previous quarter. During its quarterly earnings call, Jio clarified that it has “no immediate plans” for a direct tariff increase but emphasised its strategy of “encouraging consumers to consume more and happily pay more.”
The company’s model focuses on increasing average data consumption rather than abrupt pricing changes. By offering more data-rich plans and promoting monthly or quarterly recharges, Jio aims to ensure a steady and predictable revenue cycle, improving overall cash flow stability.
Airtel and Vi mirror similar trends
Airtel has also adjusted its pricing strategy, making the 1.5 GB-per-day plan the new standard for most prepaid users. This effectively eliminates earlier budget options while maintaining the appearance of pricing stability.
Vi, meanwhile, continues to battle financial headwinds and may soon follow suit. The company has publicly acknowledged the unsustainable nature of current tariffs and has hinted that a formal hike could be on the horizon to maintain competitiveness and meet debt obligations.
Expert projections and market outlook
Brokerage firm Axis Capital and telecom analyst Gaurav Malhotra project a potential tariff increase between December 2025 and June 2026. Supporting this view, a JP Morgan report cited by Communications Today predicts a 10–15% recharge plan hike, potentially led by Jio as part of its pre-IPO strategy.
Historically, any pricing action by Jio has triggered similar moves by Airtel and Vi, suggesting that a coordinated, industry-wide tariff increase is likely.
Impact on consumers and the road ahead
For consumers, this development translates to higher prepaid and postpaid costs in the near future. However, telecom operators argue that the revision is essential to maintain service quality, 5G coverage, and digital infrastructure.
While the industry balances growth with affordability, the coming months will be pivotal in determining how Indian users adapt to the evolving pricing structure. If the projected hike materialises, it could reshape public perception of mobile affordability in one of the world’s most competitive telecom markets.
For now, the trend is clear: the era of ultra-cheap data plans that fuelled India’s digital revolution is drawing to a close, giving way to a more sustainable—but costlier—telecom ecosystem.