New Delhi: Weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region currently but expected to intensify and continue, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday.
“The latest forecast of Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) model and other global model forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to further intensify and continue up to early next year.
“Besides the ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean, other factors such as Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also exert some influence on the Indian monsoon,” the IMD official.
The weather forecast agency further indicated that currently, there are borderline positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevailing, and the latest forecasts from MMCFS and other global models suggest that these positive IOD conditions are likely to strengthen in the coming months.
“Most models indicate that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is presently in phase 2 with an amplitude of less than 1. It is expected to continue in phase 2 during the coming week and then transition to phase 3 from September 24, with the amplitude remaining less than 1,” said the official.
“Consequently, the MJO is favourable for increasing convective activity over the Arabian Sea during the first week and over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) throughout the entire forecast period,” the official added.
On Thursday, a US government forecaster had indicated that there is a greater than 95 per cent likelihood of the El Nino weather pattern persisting during the Northern Hemisphere winter from January to March 2024, which may result in more severe weather conditions.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in the US reported that in August, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean were notably above normal, with a strengthening trend observed in the central and east-central Pacific regions.
El Nino, characterised by elevated ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, has the potential to trigger a range of extreme weather events, including wildfires, tropical cyclones, and prolonged droughts. This naturally occurring phenomenon is already causing disasters worldwide, with particular concerns for emerging markets vulnerable to fluctuations in food and energy prices.