Bengaluru: The ABP/C-Voter Exit Poll for Karnataka, which went to the polls on Wednesday, has projected the Congress to be tantalisingly close to the majority mark of 113 in the 224-member state Assembly.
A deeper analysis of “marginal” seats where the vote share difference is very narrow suggests that the Congress could win a majority in the state if it manages to win these seats.
Statistically, it is difficult to predict the outcomes in marginal seats as a few thousand votes may make the difference.
As per the ABP/C-Voter Exit Poll, there are 24 marginal seats in which the data indicates a BJP victory; 18 marginal seats are likely to go in Congress’ favour; while the JD(S) is projected to win five seats.
In the 24 marginal seats where the BJP is projected to win, the Congress is close behind as the number two. In the 18 marginal seats that the Congress is projected to win, the BJP is number two in 14. In the five marginal seats that the JD(S) is projected to win, the Congress is number two in three while the BJP is number two in two.
These 47 marginal seats in the state could decide the fate of the principal parties. Exit polls and actual results over the decades have proven that the party which leads the race usually ends up winning the majority of the marginal seats. The most recent example of that was witnessed in the Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh in December 2022.
The Congress got about 38,000 more votes than the BJP in the small state. Yet, it won most of the marginal seats and ended up winning a comfortable majority.
If the Congress flips about 20 of the 47 marginal seats, it could end up with a comfortable majority in the state.
Results of Karnataka elections will be declared on May 13.