Bengaluru: Maharastra and Karantaka are the driest this monsoon, even as the monsoon deficit across the country has risen to 10% below normal, increasing worries of a second successive drought year in the country.A shortfall of 10% or more for the entire monsoon season (June to September) is considered a drought year. Marathwada and North Karnataka have suffered a 48 and 45 percent deficit monsoon so far.
With nearly two-thirds of the monsoon season over, possible drought regions have started emerging. One clear region of high distress is Marathwada (rain deficit 48%), north interior Karnataka (45%), Rayalaseema (38%) and surrounding areas. Other rain-deficit areas are emerging in the northern plains, with east Uttar Pradesh (36%) and Bihar (32%) showing the highest deficiency as of now.
Average all-India rainfall was 5% below normal at the beginning of August but had doubled by Independence Day due to rains remaining consistently below average during the fortnight. August so far has seen 17% below-normal rain.
Agriculturally, however, the situation remains better than last year, when monsoon ended with a 12% deficit, because of plentiful rains in June and a few good spells since then in different parts of the country. This is reflected in the shown area figures for the kharif crop, which was estimated to be 890 lakh hectares as on August 14, some 27 lakh hectares more than the corresponding figure last year.
But concern for standing crops has been growing. Last week, the Centre approved proposals for initiating a series of farmer-friendly interventions for the kharif crop and sanctioned an additional Rs 300 crore for the purpose.
MET officials said the monsoon has remained low key in August due to absence of large scale rain systems typical of this time of the year. “In August, monsoon has remained mostly convective, that is, heat-related short period rain. The same pattern is likely to continue for another 10 days, with a few ups and downs. We may see a large scale revival by the end of this month or early September,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD lead monsoon forecaster.
IMD has predicted a 12% monsoon shortfall this year, mainly on account of unfavorable conditions for rains during the season due to El Nino conditions in the Pacific, which continue to grow stronger.
