Mangaluru: May 30th is likely to be the first day of the southwest monsoon for the southern coast. The Indian Meteorological Department said that conditions are becoming “favourable” for advancement of southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea and adjoining areas during the next 3-4 days and according to them is likely to hit the Kerala coast on May 30, two days before its scheduled arrival in India even as the country stares at the possibility of below normal rains for a second consecutive year. It has partly blamed the El Nino phenomenon for the low forecast.
The official date for monsoon to hit the southern state is June 1. If the monsoon reaches Kerala on May 30, it will be the seventh time in 10 years when the state witnesses the rains arriving earlier than the scheduled date.
“The southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of 4 days. Advance of southwest monsoon over Andaman Sea normally takes place around May 20 with a standard deviation of about one week. During the last few days, enhanced convection and increased rainfall activity has been observed over the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
“The cross equatorial flow is likely to strengthen and deepen over the area. As such, conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea and adjoining sea areas during the next 3-4 days. It typically takes another four to five days to cover Karnataka,” IMD said in a statement.
