A concerning demographic shift has emerged in Karnataka, with seven districts—including Udupi—recording more deaths than births, according to the Centre’s latest Civil Registration System (CRS) report for 2021.
Typically, births exceed deaths, supporting steady population growth. But the data shows Udupi, Hassan, Mandya, Chamarajanagar, Ramanagara, Bengaluru Rural, and Chitradurga have all experienced the opposite—a decline in natural population increase. In 2019, only Chamarajanagar, Mandya, and Ramanagara reported this reversal, signaling that the trend is spreading.
Dakshina Kannada, while not yet showing deaths overtaking births, has posted minimal population growth, placing it in a “watch list” with districts such as Belagavi, Uttara Kannada, Dharwad, Gadag, Haveri, Davanagere, Chikkamagaluru, Tumakuru, Mysuru, and Bengaluru Urban.
In contrast, the Kalaburagi region—comprising Bidar, Kalaburagi, Yadgir, Raichur, and Koppal—continues to report robust birth rates, maintaining demographic balance. Yet, other districts like Kolar, Chikkaballapur, Shivamogga, Ballari, Bagalkote, and Vijayapura are approaching similar tipping points.
Nationally, the pattern is most pronounced in the South. Of the 49 Indian districts where deaths surpass births, 34 are in South India. Tamil Nadu accounts for 17 of these, Karnataka seven, Kerala six, Puducherry two, and Andhra Pradesh and Telangana one each. Notably, Tamil Nadu has no district recording more births than deaths.
This decline stands in stark contrast to North Indian states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand, where higher birth rates continue to drive population growth.
Experts warn that this divergence could lead to long-term regional imbalances in the workforce, economy, and policy priorities. The rising elderly population and increased deaths in younger age groups present additional challenges for southern states already grappling with slowing growth.