Mangaluru: While there is relief that no taluk in Dakshina Kannada has been included in the Karnataka government’s first-phase drought-affected list, the sharp decline in rainfall has begun to make the coastal region feel as though summer has arrived during the monsoon itself.
Over the past week, temperatures and humidity have increased across the district. Although mornings continue to remain relatively cool in some areas, bright sunshine and intense heat have dominated the afternoons, creating an unusual weather pattern for the southwest monsoon season.
Dakshina Kannada has so far avoided drought classification largely because of the rainfall received during August, which helped offset the deficit recorded earlier in the monsoon. However, the recent dry spell and rising temperatures have raised concerns over how the weather may develop in the coming weeks.
August rainfall provides relief
Dakshina Kannada did not figure in the state’s first-phase drought-affected list. The relatively favourable rainfall received during August played an important role in keeping the district outside the drought category.
The district had experienced a deficit during the earlier part of the southwest monsoon. However, rainfall improved during August, helping to reduce the cumulative gap and provide relief to the agricultural and water sectors.
The situation has nevertheless changed considerably in recent days. With rainfall activity declining and sunshine becoming more intense, residents are experiencing conditions more commonly associated with the post-monsoon or summer period.
The combination of high temperatures and humidity has made the weather particularly uncomfortable during the daytime. While the mornings can still offer some relief, the heat becomes more pronounced as the day progresses.
Rain expected until September-end
Weather experts expect moderate rainfall in some parts of Dakshina Kannada and the coastal region until the end of September. However, rainfall is not expected to be uniformly distributed across the district.
The southwest monsoon is normally active over coastal Karnataka during this period, but its withdrawal will mark the transition towards the northeast monsoon.
The changing monsoon pattern is being closely watched as the region moves towards October. Any significant rainfall during the remaining period of the southwest monsoon could provide additional relief and improve the overall seasonal rainfall position.
However, concerns are emerging over the subsequent northeast monsoon as well.
El Niño raises concerns
Weather experts have warned that the northeast monsoon could also be weaker this year due to the increased influence of El Niño.
El Niño is associated with changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns and can influence rainfall distribution across different parts of India. Its impact on rainfall is not uniform, but weather experts are closely monitoring its influence as the monsoon season progresses.
For Dakshina Kannada, where rainfall patterns are closely linked to developments over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, changes in the frequency and intensity of weather systems can have a significant impact on rainfall.
The possibility of a weaker northeast monsoon adds another element of uncertainty to the region’s weather outlook.
Low-pressure systems drive coastal rainfall
In recent years, low-pressure systems have emerged as an important source of rainfall for coastal Karnataka. According to the India Meteorological Department, the coastal region received good rainfall during July and August due to low-pressure systems that developed over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
These systems brought substantial rainfall to the region at various intervals, helping to offset periods of deficient rainfall.
However, weather patterns have changed considerably in recent years. Low-pressure systems developing over the sea have increasingly failed to intensify into stronger systems and have weakened relatively quickly.
The decline in the intensity and frequency of cyclonic systems over the past two years has also affected the development of major weather systems over the seas surrounding the Indian subcontinent.
For a high-rainfall region such as coastal Karnataka, the frequency and strength of these systems can make a significant difference to the distribution of rainfall during the monsoon.
Summer-like conditions during monsoon
The recent weather in Dakshina Kannada has resulted in a peculiar situation. Despite the calendar indicating that the southwest monsoon season is still continuing, residents are experiencing conditions that resemble the onset of summer.
Strong sunshine during the afternoon, combined with high humidity, has made outdoor conditions uncomfortable. The relatively cooler mornings provide some relief, but the difference between morning and afternoon weather has become noticeable.
The absence of frequent rain has also resulted in clearer skies and prolonged periods of sunshine. This has contributed to the perception that the monsoon has weakened considerably across the coastal belt.
For farmers and those dependent on rainfall, the distribution of rain remains as important as the seasonal total. Long dry spells between rainfall events can affect crops, soil moisture and water availability even when the overall seasonal rainfall figure does not indicate severe deficiency.
Winter may also feel different
Changes in weather conditions are not expected to end with the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. Weather experts anticipate that the winter season could also be different from normal.
Normally, the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is followed by a gradual transition towards cooler weather. However, the influence of El Niño could reduce the intensity of cold conditions this year.
Instead of a pronounced winter chill, the region could experience more sunshine and humidity. This could make the transition from monsoon to winter less distinct than in previous years.
For residents of Dakshina Kannada, the coming weeks will therefore be important in determining whether additional rainfall arrives before the southwest monsoon completely withdraws.
While the district has received enough rainfall to remain outside the first phase of the drought list, the recent dry conditions underline the uncertainty surrounding the remainder of the monsoon and the months ahead. Further rainfall before the monsoon withdrawal would provide much-needed relief and help maintain the district’s water and agricultural conditions.