For decades, earthquakes were deemed completely unpredictable. But new research from Japan’s University of Tsukuba points to an unexpected influencer—solar activity. Scientists have uncovered a compelling link between sunspot cycles and earthquake patterns, suggesting that bursts of solar energy could subtly destabilize Earth’s crust.
The sun operates on an 11-year cycle, marked by increased sunspots and solar flares during its peak phase, the solar maximum. Traditionally, this heightened solar radiation was associated with atmospheric and climate effects. Now, experts propose it might also nudge tectonic plates closer to rupture.
How? Solar-driven temperature rises alter underground water flow and rock elasticity, weakening crustal strength. In fault zones already under immense pressure, these seemingly minor shifts could deliver the final push triggering shallow quakes.
This theory stems from a 2022 study by Tsukuba researchers Matheus Henrique Junqueira Saldanha and Yoshito Hirata. Their initial findings hinted at a correlation but lacked clarity. Expanding on this, they built computational models blending sunspot data, surface temperature records, and historical seismic activity. The outcome: higher surface temperatures linked to increased shallow earthquake likelihood.
Solar heating causes rocks to expand, contract, and fracture over time. Simultaneously, altered rainfall and snowmelt patterns—also governed by solar cycles—redistribute stress along fault lines.
While tectonic forces remain the primary culprits, scientists now believe solar influences might be key to enhancing earthquake forecasts. Incorporating space weather factors may one day sharpen predictions, especially in quake-prone regions.
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