The Earth will be home to 8.8 billion people in 2100, two billion fewer than current UN projections, says a new study led by an international team of researchers, published in The Lancet on Wednesday. By century’s end, 183 of 195 countries, barring an influx of immigrants, will have fallen below the replacement threshold needed to maintain population levels, it said. More than 20 countries, including Italy, Japan, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, and Thailand, will see their numbers diminish by at least half by the year 2100, according to projections in the study. China’s population will fall from 1.4 billion people today to 730 million in 80 years, while Sub-Saharan Africa, meanwhile, will triple in size to some three billion people, with Nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 million in 2100, second only to India’s 1.1 billion reports Al Jazeera quoting AFP
‘Good news for the environment’
“These forecasts suggest good news for the environment, with less stress on food production systems and lower carbon emissions, as well as a significant economic opportunity for parts of sub-Saharan Africa,” lead author Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, told AFP news agency. “However, most countries outside of Africa will see shrinking workforces and inverting population pyramids, which will have profound negative consequences for the economy.”
Declining workforce availability
Sharp declines in the number and proportion of the working-age population will also pose huge challenges in many countries. “Societies will struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayers,” said Stein Emil Vollset, a professor at IHME. The number of people of working age in China, for example, will plummet from about 950 million today to just over 350 million by the end of the century – a 62-percent drop. In Nigeria, by contrast, the active labor force will expand from 86 million today to more than 450 million in 2100.
The Economy
According to the report, India’s GDP will rise to take the number-three spot, while France, Germany, Japan, and the UK will stay among the world’s 10 largest economies. By 2050, China’s gross domestic product will overtake that of the United States, but fall back into second place by 2100, they predict. Brazil is projected to fall in ranking from eighth today to 13th, and Russia from 10th to 14th. Historical powers Italy and Spain, meanwhile, declined from the top 15 to 25th and 28th, respectively.
Indonesia could become the 12th-largest economy globally, while Nigeria – currently 28th – is projected to crack the top 10. “By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the United States the dominant powers,” said Richard Horton, describing the study as outlining “radical shifts in geopolitical power.”
Challenging the UN’s hegemony on Population figures
Founded in 2007 and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, IHME had become a global reference for health statistics, especially its annual Global Burden of Disease reports.
Infographics courtesy: http://www.healthdata.org/infographic/significant-changes-ahead-world-population
Video courtesy: https://www.aljazeera.com/