The interim report submitted by the experts’ panel led by Dr. Devi Prasad Shetty on third wave raises a few genuine queries.
A table provided in page number 30 cites Karnataka’s population as 7,02,59,592 and the population of children below 20 years as 2,38,38,995, that is 34 % of total population.
Further, the same table states that the highest single day spike during the second wave was of 50,717 cases. Interestingly, the same table cites a report published last year, and states that the case to infection ratio would be 1:30, but then on the same row, this very ratio is shown as 20. In the next row of the same table, Peak Infections in Karnataka for 2nd Wave is shown as 15,21,510. One is left wondering how the experts got this number, because, multiplying the peak cases of 50,717 by 20 doesn’t provide such a number! It is actually 30 times of the single day spike! The quoted study provides the ratio as 1:40, the table boldly suggests it as 1:20, but ends up calculating it as 1:30! The interim report estimates that the third Wave in its peak will affect 2.2% of the population, but it is not clear how did the experts arrive at such a conclusion.
The study quoted in the interim report, published by the Karnataka Covid Task Force last year (available at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.04.20243949v1.full), states that the overall adjusted prevalence of Covid-19 in Karnataka was 27.3%, including IgG 16.4% and active infection 12.7% and that the case-to-infection ratio was 1:40, and the infection fatality rate was 0 ·05%. Therefore, if this report by the task force and cited by the 3rd wave panel is considered, when the first wave ended in April 2021, and the second wave started, the total number of Corona cases were 10,01,238, and the total number of the infections would have been 40 times of the cases, that is 4,00,49,520. The State Health Minister in October had also stated that the number of infected people in the State at that point of time was 1.93 crores, based on the same study. Thus, according to all these, and the new interim report, it becomes clear that the number of infected people in Karnataka by April is 4 crores. While, the total population of the State is 7 crores, this means only 3 crore people were not infected by Covid.
As the second wave is coming to an end, the total cases reported are 28,15,029, which means that the cases registered from April 1 to June 22 is 18,13,791. Again, if this number is multiplied by 40, it will be 725,51,640 which is more than the total population of the State. Again as per the statement in page number 30, if registered cases are multiplied by 30 times, the total cases would be 5,44,13,730, but in reality 4,0049,520 people having been infected by April, and only 3 crore people were not infected, where from the additional 5 crore population could get infected now? As per the numbers given by your report, if it is multiplied even by 20, still 3,62,75,820 people would be infected which again exceeds the total population of the State!
In the same page of the interim report, as said above, it is stated that 2.2% of people will be infected when the third wave reaches its peak, by ‘extrapolating the data’ of the second wave. How did the panel arrive at this figure of 2.2%? When the panel claims that everyone in the State is already infected, then one wonders who is left to be infected in the third wave? Based on this 2.2%, the interim report estimates that 3,40,000 children are likely to be affected by the third wave, and that among them 2% might need ICU, based on some American data. It is surprising that American report has been used for reference instead of referring the data collected by Karnataka State during first wave and second wave. Can’t the 3rd wave panel get hold of the data of our own State?
According to the report published by the Karnataka Government on March 21, 2021, among total 9,58,663 cases, 2.9 % infected were below 10 years of age and 6.8 % (64,806) were between 10 and 19 years. It’s clear that though children below the age group of 20 make up 34% of the total population, they make up for only 9.65% of the infected. Among 12,396 deaths reported, 28 (0.22%) were below 10 years and 46 (0.37%) were between the age group of 10 and 19 years. That being the fact, one would like to know how did the panel come to a conclusion that 2% of the infected children might need ICU and that 15% of children may have to be sent to the child care centre.
