Tensions between China and Japan have escalated sharply following a series of diplomatic clashes, provocative statements and rising military activity around Taiwan and the East China Sea. The already fragile bilateral relationship has now plunged to its lowest point since 2023, with both governments issuing threats, warnings and retaliatory measures that have alarmed regional observers.
Beijing lashes out at Tokyo over Taiwan remarks
The flashpoint emerged after comments by Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who assumed office in October. Addressing the Japanese Parliament earlier this month, she stated that Japan “may take retaliatory measures” if China attempted a naval blockade or used military force against Taiwan. Beijing, which considers Taiwan an integral part of China, reacted with fury.
On Friday, China’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Fu Kang, lodged a strong protest with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. In a sharply worded letter, he warned that any Japanese involvement in a cross-Strait conflict “would be an attack”, signalling that Japan could be treated as a hostile party should conflict erupt.
Beijing has consistently refused to rule out the use of force to annex Taiwan, and sees any foreign military involvement in the Taiwan Strait as a violation of its sovereignty. Takaichi’s remarks, despite her later clarification, have further strained the already sensitive relationship.
Threatening post by Chinese diplomat sparks outrage
The situation deteriorated further when China’s Consul General in Osaka, Xu Jian, posted a shocking message on social media. “We have no choice but to cut the filthy neck that pounces on us without hesitation. Are you ready?” he wrote, triggering outrage in Tokyo. Japanese legislators demanded his immediate expulsion and accused Beijing of inciting violence.
Both countries summoned each other’s ambassadors within 48 hours of the incident. China warned Tokyo of a “crushing defeat” if it interfered in Taiwan, while Japan urged Beijing to restrain its diplomats.
Although Prime Minister Takaichi later said she would avoid discussing detailed military scenarios in future, she stopped short of retracting her remarks, signalling a firmer Japanese stance on the Taiwan issue under her leadership.
China launches travel advisories and airline moves
The fallout swiftly extended beyond diplomacy into economic retaliation. On November 14, Beijing issued a no-travel advisory for Japan, directly impacting the Japanese tourism sector, which received nearly 75 lakh Chinese visitors between January and September this year.
Within 24 hours, three Chinese airlines offered free cancellations or date-change options for flights to Japan, enabling travellers to alter their plans amid rising safety concerns.
China’s Ministry of Education added to the pressure by cautioning Chinese students about “recent crimes against Chinese nationals” in Japan. With both countries witnessing isolated attacks on each other’s citizens this year, concerns of xenophobia have begun to mount.
Maritime tensions flare in East China Sea
Parallel to the diplomatic war, military tensions in the East China Sea have also intensified. Beijing announced last week that its coastguard vessels had been patrolling waters near a group of uninhabited islands claimed by both countries.
Japan refers to the islands as the Senkaku Islands, while China calls them the Diaoyu Islands. Tokyo condemned the presence of four Chinese vessels in what it termed “a clear violation” of Japanese territorial waters.
Soon after, China halted the screening of Japanese films, banned seafood imports from Japan, and cancelled a trilateral culture ministers’ meeting with Japan and South Korea. The suspension of cultural and economic engagements has signalled a rapid downward spiral.
Regional implications
Analysts warn that the deepening standoff could endanger stability in East Asia. China’s military build-up around Taiwan, coupled with Japan’s growing security ties with the United States, has created a combustible environment.
Tokyo has strengthened its defence posture in recent years, partly due to the “Taiwan contingency” scenario, which Japanese strategists believe would directly impact Japan’s security. China, meanwhile, views Japan’s involvement as part of a broader US-led containment strategy.
With both sides refusing to back down, diplomats fear the situation could escalate further unless mediated through regional forums.
Conclusion
The recent escalation marks one of the tensest phases in China–Japan relations in years. While full-scale conflict remains unlikely, the hardened rhetoric, military signalling, and economic retaliation have pushed the two Asian powers into a dangerous confrontation. Much will depend on whether diplomatic channels can halt the downward spiral and restore some semblance of stability in the region.