Economists from global banks, including Morgan Stanley and Nomura Holdings Inc., have highlighted India and Thailand as two countries most vulnerable to risks posed by President Donald Trump’s promise to implement reciprocal tariffs on trade partners. These nations are particularly exposed because the tariffs they impose on the United States are, on average, significantly higher than the tariffs charged by the U.S. against them, according to various estimates.
However, analysts note that Trump has yet to provide clarity on the specifics of the policy, including which countries will be targeted and the criteria for such decisions.
Nomura analysts, led by Sonal Varma, emphasized that emerging Asian economies, including India and Thailand, tend to have higher tariff rates on U.S. exports and are thus at risk of facing substantial reciprocal tariffs. “We expect Asian economies to intensify their negotiations with Trump,” they stated in a note to clients.
Trump’s announcement on Friday indicated his plan to introduce reciprocal tariffs to ensure that the U.S. is “treated fairly” in trade, a proposal that may replace his earlier threat of broad, universal tariffs. Further details on the policy are expected to be revealed on Tuesday or Wednesday, with the tariffs likely taking effect immediately or shortly after their announcement.
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