India’s Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran has cautioned that the ongoing Iran-Israel tensions may pose significant risks to India’s economy, particularly due to rising crude oil prices and global uncertainty. However, he dismissed parallels with the 2008 global financial crisis, suggesting that this disruption may be more gradual but prolonged.
“The current conflict may not be favourable for India,” he said, citing oil prices rising to USD 73–74 per barrel. Though a cause for concern, he noted that India managed to sustain 7% growth in 2022 even when oil soared above USD 100.
Nageswaran emphasized the uncertain duration and scale of oil price hikes, saying it’s too early to assess a severe impact. On tariffs, he clarified that they wouldn’t automatically hinder Indian exports unless competing nations received preferential treatment.
Addressing global slowdown fears, he said, “This may not lead to a sudden shock like in 2008, but its effects could be more diffused and long-lasting, stretching over several years.”
Despite these challenges, India’s economy continues to display resilience, achieving 6.5% growth in 2024–25, and projected to reach 6.3–6.8% in 2025–26. He praised India’s structural reforms, including production-linked incentives, which have boosted self-reliance, especially in sectors like mobile manufacturing and renewable energy.
He concluded by stressing that policy momentum and dynamism would be key to pushing growth beyond current estimates.
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