A week of notable events unfolded in North Korea, including a failed satellite launch, the release of trash-filled balloons southward, and the test-firing of 10 short-range ballistic missiles. Here’s a closer look at the underlying dynamics:
The recent flurry of actions is widely interpreted as a response from Kim Jong Un’s regime to a joint statement issued by China, South Korea, and Japan. This statement reiterated their commitment to the “denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula,” a phrase long used by these countries, including North Korea’s ally, China. Notably, Kim Jong Un had previously pledged to work towards complete denuclearisation during the 2018 summit with former US President Donald Trump, a commitment reaffirmed by South Korean President Moon Jae-in in a recent memoir.
However, since the breakdown of the second Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi in 2019, North Korea has shifted away from diplomacy, intensifying its focus on weapons development and rejecting overtures for talks from Washington. This shift was accompanied by legislative changes, notably a 2022 law that solidified North Korea’s self-proclaimed status as a “nuclear-armed state” and outlined the hierarchy of command over its nuclear arsenal, firmly placing Kim Jong Un at the helm. The constitutional amendment in 2023 formalized this status.
The recent actions by North Korea can be seen as a direct response to perceived slights, particularly towards China, which has traditionally supported sanctions against North Korea but has shown reluctance to fully enforce them amid deteriorating relations with the US. This week’s summit among China, South Korea, and Japan likely irked Pyongyang, with experts suggesting dissatisfaction with Beijing’s perceived passivity.
The release of balloons filled with trash towards South Korea represents another facet of North Korea’s response strategy. South Korean activists have long sent similar balloons filled with propaganda and other items northward, provoking Pyongyang. The recent act of sending trash-filled balloons can be interpreted as retaliation, with North Korea mocking South Korea’s response to the incident.
Looking ahead, North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia is noteworthy, as evidenced by the failed satellite launch using technologies associated with Russia. This suggests a deepening relationship between the two countries, potentially involving exchanges of weapons for technical assistance. Moreover, shifts in the geopolitical landscape, including the possibility of Trump’s reelection, could create openings for China to enhance its influence over South Korea by leveraging the North Korean issue.
