The high-stakes talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Istanbul, aimed at resolving escalating border tensions and militant attacks, have stalled after three days of negotiations, officials said on Tuesday.

Mediation and breakdown

The dialogue, mediated by Qatar and Türkiye, followed earlier rounds in Doha that had produced a temporary ceasefire on October 19. That brief truce came after a week of clashes that left dozens dead on both sides.

Pakistani officials said discussions in Istanbul stretched for nearly 18 hours on Monday, but progress was halted after the Afghan delegation allegedly shifted its stance on Pakistan’s demand that Kabul take decisive action against the Pakistan Taliban, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

An unnamed Pakistani official told Al Jazeera that “instructions received from Kabul” had complicated the negotiations. Afghan officials, however, blamed Islamabad for a “lack of coordination” and said Pakistan’s representatives repeatedly left the negotiating table.

The Afghan team was led by Haji Najib, deputy minister for administrative affairs at the Ministry of Interior. Pakistan did not reveal the identities of its delegates.

Rising violence and growing distrust

Cross-border attacks between the two countries have intensified in recent months, killing and injuring dozens of soldiers and civilians.

United States President Donald Trump, who has sought to position himself as a global mediator, said he could “solve the Afghanistan–Pakistan crisis very quickly,” while attending the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia earlier this week.

However, analysts say a long-term settlement remains unlikely because of “deep-rooted distrust and conflicting priorities.”
Baqir Sajjad Syed, a national security journalist and former Wilson Center fellow, said that Pakistan’s past interventions in Afghanistan have made it politically risky for the Afghan Taliban to make concessions.

“The Taliban’s dependence on the TTP for maintaining internal security makes it difficult for them to break ties, despite Pakistan’s concerns,” Syed told Al Jazeera.

A fraught friendship

Pakistan was once considered the key backer of the Afghan Taliban, with many in Islamabad celebrating their return to power in August 2021 after the withdrawal of US forces.

Since then, ties have deteriorated sharply, largely due to Islamabad’s accusations that the Taliban are harbouring the TTP, which has intensified attacks in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces.

The TTP, which emerged in 2007, seeks to reverse the merger of Pakistan’s tribal areas into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and to secure the release of its jailed members. Although it operates independently, it shares ideological links with the Afghan Taliban.

Kabul denies Pakistani claims that it shelters the TTP and other groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army and ISIL-K (Islamic State Khorasan Province). The Taliban, in turn, argue that the TTP issue is Pakistan’s internal problem.

Mullah Yaqoob, Afghanistan’s defence minister, recently said that the term “terrorism” is often used for political ends, adding that “any government can brand its adversaries as terrorists for its own agenda.”

Regional concern and rising toll

Regional powers including Iran, China, Russia, and several Central Asian states have urged the Taliban to clamp down on militant groups operating from their soil.

Meanwhile, the toll of violence in Pakistan continues to rise. The year 2024 was one of the deadliest in nearly a decade, with more than 2,500 casualties. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project shows that in the past year alone, the TTP carried out at least 600 attacks against security forces, a figure that has already been exceeded in 2025.

Security analyst Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud said ideological ties between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban make it difficult for Kabul to act against the group. Journalist Sami Yousafzai agreed, saying that “the prospects of détente now look increasingly remote.”

Diplomatic dead end

Despite mediation by Qatar, Türkiye, and China, Islamabad may soon resort to limited military options to counter TTP activities, analysts warn.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently hinted at “open war” if cross-border attacks continue. Experts believe that such remarks could signal targeted air strikes on Afghan territory if diplomacy fails.

However, some diplomats hope mediation efforts will continue, possibly with new venues or broader international participation. President Trump has also expressed readiness to step in and broker peace, citing his recent success in mediating between Thailand and Cambodia.

Consequences of escalation

Analysts caution that renewed conflict could benefit the TTP while damaging both states. While Pakistan has superior firepower, the Taliban retain strong local support.

“The Taliban’s attacks on Pakistani forces have increased their domestic popularity,” said Yousafzai. “If Pakistan responds militarily, civilian casualties could inflame anti-Pakistani sentiment across Afghanistan.”

He warned that if Taliban leader Haibatullah Akhunzada issues a call for jihad against Pakistan, it could draw thousands of young Afghans into the fight. “Even if the Afghan side suffers more, it would still be disastrous for Pakistan,” Yousafzai said.

Conclusion

With diplomacy faltering and military options fraught with risks, both nations now stand on the brink of a potentially wider conflict. Mediators are expected to make another push to salvage dialogue, but for now, the collapse of talks in Istanbul underscores how far Afghanistan and Pakistan remain from rebuilding trust.