India is on course to join the ranks of upper middle income countries by the end of this decade, according to a detailed analysis by State Bank of India. The report projects that India’s per capita Gross National Income (GNI) will reach around $4,000 by 2030, placing it alongside nations such as China and Indonesia under the World Bank’s income classification.
World Bank data shows global shift
Citing World Bank data, the SBI report highlights a significant transformation in the global income distribution of countries between 1990 and 2024. During this period, the number of low-income economies declined sharply, while upper-middle and high-income economies expanded steadily.
China presents the most striking example of this transition. From a per capita GNI of just $330 in 1990, China moved from the low-income category to the upper-middle-income group by 2024. Indonesia followed a similar trajectory, reinforcing Asia’s broader economic ascent.
India’s gradual but steady climb
India’s rise has been comparatively gradual but consistent. It took nearly six decades for the country to move from low income to lower-middle income status in 2007, with per capita GNI increasing from $90 in 1962 to $910. Since then, growth has accelerated.
India became a $1 trillion economy after about 60 years, doubled to $2 trillion in just seven years, crossed $4 trillion by 2025, and is projected to reach $5 trillion within the next two years. Per capita income crossed $1,000 in 2009, doubled to $2,000 by 2019, and is expected to reach $3,000 by 2026.
Entry into upper middle income group
According to SBI’s projections, India’s per capita GNI will hit $4,000 by 2030, comfortably meeting the threshold for the upper-middle-income category. The report notes that India’s percentile rank in global real GDP growth has improved markedly over the past decade, reflecting stronger relative performance among emerging markets.
Road ahead
Looking further ahead, SBI says achieving high-income status by 2047 under the Viksit Bharat vision would require sustained per capita GNI growth of around 7.5–9 per cent annually, depending on future threshold revisions. While challenging, the bank believes India’s recent growth trajectory suggests this ambition is within reach.