New Delhi: Home prices in India are set to climb more quickly than earlier projected, driven by demand for premium properties, even as affordable housing stock continues to shrink, according to a Reuters poll of property experts. Analysts warn this trend could leave many middle- and lower-income households stuck in increasingly expensive rentals.

Rising demand, limited supply

The concentration of high-paying jobs in a few major cities and stagnating wages has pushed home ownership out of reach for millions moving to urban centres. Many prospective buyers are now forced to rent, adding pressure to already tight rental markets.

India faces an affordable housing deficit of about 10 million homes, a gap real estate consultancy Knight Frank projects could triple by 2030.

Forecasts point to steeper climb

Average home prices — which have more than doubled over the past decade — are expected to rise 6.3% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026, according to the median estimates of 20 property analysts surveyed between August 14 and September 12. That outlook is higher than the 6.0% and 5.0% growth predicted in June.

Rents in urban areas are also expected to climb between 5% and 8% over the coming year, outpacing inflation.

Affordability at risk

While some analysts said recent rate cuts could ease mortgage burdens slightly, most agreed rising prices will offset those gains. Entry-level and first-time buyers are likely to face the sharpest challenges, especially in hot markets such as the National Capital Region and Bengaluru, where price increases are expected to be above the national average.

Property market experts noted that only a fraction of the population is actively engaged in buying homes today, with the average age of first-time ownership steadily rising.

Long-term concerns

Analysts also warned of the broader economic implications of India’s housing imbalance. Without meaningful expansion in affordable housing supply, home ownership could remain out of reach for a growing segment of urban residents, reinforcing inequalities in wealth and opportunity.