The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted widespread rainfall and thunderstorm activity across southern states, including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, over the coming week. The forecast comes amid ongoing southwest monsoon withdrawal from most parts of central and eastern India, even as southern peninsular regions remain under the influence of multiple weather systems.

Southern states to witness heavy rainfall and thunderstorms

According to the All India Weather Forecast and Warning Bulletin issued on October 12, 2025, light to moderate rainfall is expected across Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Yanam (Puducherry) between October 13 and 18.

Kerala and Tamil Nadu may witness isolated heavy rainfall, while coastal Andhra Pradesh and parts of south interior Karnataka are likely to experience heightened rainfall on October 13 and 14. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 30–40 km/h are expected over Kerala, Mahe (Puducherry), Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, and Telangana between October 13 and 16. Lakshadweep is also expected to experience thunderstorms with strong winds on October 13.

Residents and travellers are advised to plan their immediate travel accordingly and avoid unnecessary journeys in high-risk areas.

Rainfall in eastern and northeastern India

Eastern India will see isolated heavy rainfall in Odisha, followed by thunderstorms on October 13 and 14. Light to moderate rainfall or thundershowers may occur at a few places in Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha region between October 14 and 16.

In the northeast, thunderstorms with lightning are likely over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura, though rainfall activity is expected to decrease gradually thereafter. Most parts of central and northern India, including Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and Delhi, are expected to remain dry through the week.

Temperature trends and monsoon withdrawal

On October 12, minimum temperatures were markedly above normal in sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and Bihar, while above normal conditions were recorded in Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, and Vidarbha. The lowest minimum was 14°C at Indore, Madhya Pradesh, indicating cooler nights in central India, while Barmer in Rajasthan recorded the highest maximum at 36.9°C.

The IMD reported that conditions are now favourable for further monsoon withdrawal from remaining parts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Telangana within 24 hours. The northeastern states are expected to see monsoon withdrawal in the next 2–3 days.

Outlook for the week

  • Kerala and Lakshadweep: Widespread rainfall throughout the week
  • Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal: Fairly widespread rainfall from October 13–18
  • Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh: Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall
  • Central India (Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh): Isolated rainfall mid-week
  • Northwest and North India: Predominantly dry conditions

Residents are advised to stay updated with official IMD forecasts, take precautions during thunderstorms, and avoid travel in affected areas to ensure safety. The IMD continues to monitor weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, which may influence rainfall patterns in the coming days.