Bengaluru: With just few days left for the crucial Assembly polls , a new opinion poll predicted that the Congress may emerge as the single largest party in the southern state but may fall eight seats short of a clear majority.
According to the India TV-CNX opinion poll, telecast on the news channel on Sunday May 7, the Congress may win 105 seats in the 224-seat Assembly, while the ruling BJP may win 85 seats, followed by Janata Dal-Secular which may win 32 seats.
The opinion poll predicted that ‘others’ may win two seats. In the 2018 elections, the BJP had won 104, the Congress 80, the JD-S 37, and ‘Others’ had won three seats.
As per the vote share projections, Congress may get 40.32 per cent, the BJP may get 35.5 per cent, the JD-S 17.81 per cent, and ‘others’ may get 6.37 per cent. In the 2018 elections, the Congress had got 38.04 per cent, the BJP had got 36.22 per cent, the JD-S 18.36 per cent and ‘Others’ had got 7.38 per cent votes. The opinion poll also predicted that caste and community wise projections show, the Congress may get 75.3 per cent of Kuruba votes, 15.11 per cent Lingayat votes, 17.57 per cent Vokkaliga votes, 40.56 per cent of SC votes, 34.58 per cent of OBC votes, 42.35 per cent of ST votes, and a whopping 78 per cent of Muslim votes. On the other hand, the BJP may get 15.14 per cent Kuruba votes, a whopping 75.8 per cent Lingayat votes, 17.39 per cent Vokkaliga votes, 39.6 per cent SC votes, 51.7 per cent OBC votes, 32.18 per cent ST votes and only 2.07 per cent Muslim votes. The projection show the JD-S may get 56 per cent Vokkaliga votes.
The India TV-CNX poll projections region-wise show also predicted that the BJP and the Congress may share 15 seats each in Greater Bengaluru area (32 seats total), while the JD-S) may get two. In Central Karnataka’s 21 seats, the BJP may win 13 and Congress eight seats. The Congress may sweep the Hyderabad-Karnataka region, winning 32 of the 40 seats, while the BJP may win six and the JD-S two. In Old Mysore’s 62 seats, the Congress may win 26 seats, the JD-S may win 28, and the BJP only seven seats. ‘Others’ may win the remaining one seat. In coastal Karnataka having 19 seats, the BJP may win 15 and the Congress 4. In the Bombay Karnataka region having 50 seats, the BJP may win 29, the Congress may win 20 and ‘Others’ may win one seat.
The opinion poll survey findings also showed that Congress leader and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah still remains the first choice for the top post, leading the list with 32.2 per cent votes, while 26.83 per cent favouring incumbent Basavaraj Bommai as Chief Minister. Meanwhile, 16.37 per cent opted for JD-S leader and former CM H.D. Kumaraswamy, while 10.97 per cent favoured BJP leader and former CM B.S. Yeddyurappa and only seven per cent preferred Congress leader D.K. Shivakumar for the Chief Ministerial post. The opinion poll survey was carried out by CNX among 11,200 respondents (5,620 males and 5,580 females) in 112 out of a total of 224 seats. The respondents were selected randomly keeping in view demographic, professional and migration dimensions. Polling for the Karnataka Assembly is scheduled on May 10 and counting of votes will take place on May 13.