New Delhi: India’s imports of Russian crude oil fell sharply in August from the previous month, but the decline may not fully reflect how much Russian oil has actually left the country’s crude mix, as a growing volume of shipments is becoming difficult to identify, according to commodity analytics firm Kpler.
Russian seaborne crude arrivals in India fell 26% month-on-month to around 2.09 million barrels per day (bpd) in August from 2.83 million bpd in July, Kpler data showed. Volumes have averaged around 1.95 million bpd so far in September.
Russia’s identifiable share of India’s crude imports consequently declined to 44% in August from 56% in July and around 39% so far in September.
However, the rise in shipments with unidentified destinations and origins complicates the picture.
Russian barrels become harder to trace
According to Kpler, Russia’s total seaborne crude exports remained broadly stable at around 5.5 million bpd in August compared with 5.6 million bpd in July.
What changed significantly was the volume of Russian shipments for which no destination was declared. Such cargoes increased to around 800,000 bpd in August from 300,000 bpd in July.
At the same time, India received around 500,000 bpd of crude in August whose origin could not be identified. That volume has increased to approximately 640,000 bpd so far in September, compared with virtually no such shipments recorded in 2025.
Naveen Das, senior oil analyst at Kpler, described the change as a visibility issue rather than necessarily a complete disappearance of Russian barrels from the market.
“The barrels did not leave the market. What changed is visibility,” Das said.
When potentially Russian barrels are included alongside clearly identified Russian shipments, the apparent decline becomes considerably smaller.
Kpler data showed that Russian and potentially Russian barrels accounted for around 61% of India’s crude arrivals in July, 55% in August and 52% so far in September.
Overall Indian crude imports also declined
Part of the fall in Russian crude imports can be explained by a reduction in India’s overall crude intake.
India’s total crude imports fell by around 0.34 million bpd in August as refineries underwent maintenance. This means that some of the decline in Russian volumes resulted from a smaller overall import pool rather than an equivalent shift away from Russian oil.
Despite the August fall, Russian crude imports remained above the 2025 average of around 1.75 million bpd.
The changing composition of India’s crude imports therefore needs to be viewed alongside refinery maintenance, alternative supplies and the increasing volume of unattributed cargoes.
Gulf crude supplies recover
The decline in identifiable Russian crude has coincided with a recovery in supplies from Gulf producers.
Gulf crude arrivals in India had fallen sharply earlier this year amid disruptions caused by the regional conflict. They dropped to around 1.03 million bpd in June, according to Kpler data, the lowest level in its series going back to 2017.
That was also substantially below the approximately 1.95 million bpd recorded during the Covid-19-related disruption in April 2020.
Gulf supplies averaged around 2.24 million bpd in 2025 but remained between 1.03 million bpd and 1.34 million bpd from March through August this year.
The recovery began to become visible in August. Gulf crude arrivals rose to around 1.18 million bpd in August and approximately 1.52 million bpd so far in September.
Iraqi oil supplies also recover
Iraq recorded one of the steepest declines earlier in the year.
Its crude supplies to India fell to around 70,000 bpd in June from approximately 900,000 bpd in 2025.
The flow has since recovered, reaching around 330,000 bpd so far in September.
Kuwait supplied approximately 240,000 bpd, while UAE supplies remained comparatively steady at between around 470,000 bpd and 640,000 bpd.
The UAE has an additional logistical advantage through infrastructure including Fujairah and the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which provide alternatives to shipments dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.
The recovery in Gulf supplies means some of the barrels replacing identifiable Russian cargoes are coming from traditional Middle Eastern suppliers.
US tariff threat adds uncertainty for refiners
The changing pattern of crude imports also comes amid increased uncertainty over potential US measures targeting countries that continue buying Russian energy.
The US House of Representatives passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 by 262-159 on September 16. The legislation authorised the US president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on major purchasers of Russian oil and gas under specified conditions.
The legislation subsequently became law after President Donald Trump signed it on September 18. The law gives the US administration expanded powers relating to sanctions and tariffs, although a maximum tariff does not mean that a 100% tariff is automatically imposed on India.
The development has added another layer of uncertainty for Indian refiners evaluating the economics and risks of Russian crude purchases.
Kpler’s Das also pointed to possible caution among refiners because of the US tariff threat, although he noted that this cannot be established from import data alone.
Replacing Russian crude could raise costs
Indian refiners have been seeking alternative supplies as the international crude market adjusts.
However, replacing large volumes of Russian crude simultaneously could put upward pressure on international oil prices if several major buyers compete for the same alternative barrels.
The economics of replacement crude also depend on freight, insurance, quality differentials and benchmark prices.
The supplied market assessment puts the effective cost of some alternative barrels for refiners at around $135-$140, compared with Brent at roughly $105-$109. These figures can vary according to the crude grade, freight and commercial terms involved.
Natalia Katona, an Abu Dhabi-based commodity analyst, said the market was preparing for the possibility of Dubai crude reaching $140-$150.
Such price levels would have implications for countries such as India, which relies heavily on imported crude to meet domestic energy requirements.
Global supply risks remain in focus
The international oil market is also facing additional supply risks.
The shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has added to concerns over the movement of crude. The approximately 1,200-kilometre pipeline is a major route for transporting Saudi barrels towards the Red Sea and has a capacity of around 5 million barrels per day.
Any prolonged disruption to major supply routes can affect freight patterns, regional crude availability and benchmark prices.
For India, the combination of recovering Gulf supplies, changing Russian shipments and increasing unattributed cargoes makes the country’s crude import mix more difficult to assess from headline country-of-origin data alone.
Russian oil share may be lower than headline figures suggest
The fall in clearly identified Russian crude imports is significant, but the growing volume of unattributed cargoes means it should not automatically be interpreted as an equivalent reduction in Russian oil entering India.
Kpler’s figures suggest that Russian and potentially Russian barrels still represented around 52% of India’s crude arrivals so far in September when unidentified supplies were taken into account.
At the same time, Gulf and Iraqi supplies are recovering, indicating that India is diversifying part of its crude intake.
The evolving import pattern will remain important for refiners and policymakers as India balances crude availability, refinery economics and the potential consequences of new US measures targeting Russian energy trade.
For now, the available data show both a decline in clearly identified Russian crude and a simultaneous rise in shipments whose origin or destination is not transparent. That makes the precise scale of the shift in India’s Russian oil dependence harder to determine.