New Year New Year, here you come – But what do you bring – cheer or fear, hope or disappointment? This year you began with cheer and ended with fear. Next year you will begin with fear; Will you end up with cheer? This is what we would like to believe. Like all years in the past, the year gone by had its ups and downs, and whether one is in the valley or on the crest entirely depends on the spectacles one is wearing – for the polarization in India is complete – There are no greys anymore, everything is either black or white – in more ways than one!
Some of the defining moments of India as a nation in 2016 :
Feb 13th: Student leader Kanhaiya Kumar was arrested by the Delhi Police following the contentious protests held at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU).
June 7th: The Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC) and Bollywood were at loggerheads over the Udta Punjab controversy.
June 22nd: In its thirty sixth flight (PSLV-C34), ISRO’s Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle successfully launched the 727.5 kg Cartosat-2 Series Satellite along with 19 co-passenger satellites in a single flight. This was a milestone achievement for the organisation.
Aug 11th: PV Sindhu made the nation proud after bagging the silver medal at the 2016 Rio Olympics in the badminton women’s single category. She became the first Indian woman to win an Olympic silver medal.
Sep 1st: Reliance ushers in telecom revolution with Reliance JioInfocomm. Reliance Jio promises an all–new 4G LTE network on which all local voice calls will be free forever, data will be anywhere up to 40 percent cheaper than incumbent telcos and a host of other services can be used at the world’s cheapest tariffs.
Sep 29th: In the aftermath of the Uri attacks, where insurgents attacked an army base in Indian-administered Kashmir, India hit Pakistan terror launchpads in surgical strikes along the LOC.
Oct 24th: In a move that shocked the business community, the Tata Sons board sacked Cyrus Mistry as Chairman. The feud, which is being played out in the media now, is termed as arguably one of the biggest in the corporate India in the recent times.
Nov 8th: 8 November 2016 marked a keystone event in Indian financial history. Narendra Modi kicked off his ‘Demonetisation’ drive with his televised national announcement, where he announced that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes would dno longer be legal tender. This announcement was seen as the PM’s fight against fake currency and black money in the system.
Dec 5th: The year 2016 ended in grief for the people of Tamil Nadu who lost their popular leader J Jayalalithaa, who had only seven months ago led her party to a comprehensive successive second victory in the Assembly polls.
Dec 19th: India amassed its highest-ever Test innings total against England at 759/7 declared. Their previous highest total was 726/9 declared, which they made against Sri Lanka at Mumbai in 2009. Overall, this was the seventh highest innings total ever in Tests.
Dec 30th: Samajwadi Party was on the verge of a split between father and son.
The World in the year gone by…
The World moved on from Jan 1st 2016 with Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential elections, Britain’s Brexit vote, Russia’s successes in Syria, Turkey’s failed coup attempt, terror attacks in France, Germany and Belgium, Chinese actions in South China Sea and North Korea’s testing of nuclear capable missiles. All of these events have not impacted India greatly, but will recast geo political relationships worldwide including those of India.
The World also saw a drastic reduction Oil Prices, with a glut of oil in World Markets caused by the lifting of sanctions on Iran after the nuclear deal. The nuclear deal itself does seem in jeopardy with the advent of a Trump Administration, and the likely hood of strikes on its nuclear facilities a real possibility with the incoming US Administration’s open support of such a course of action. The world is also moving towards Climate Change, and new energy sources are being explored with renewed vigour further dampening oil prices – Good for the Indian Economy perhaps at this crucial stage, but not perhaps for the west Asian monarchies, which might face turbulent times in 2017. Over the year, Russia and China too became greater buddies and Pakistan is trying to make a back door entry into this partnership.
Foreign Policy:
The most visible foreign policy success, came from the bonhomie between President Obama and PM Modi – It resulted in gains for both countries – Arms deals for the US, and support for the NSG group and a Strategic Defence Partner tag for India giving it access to the latest military technology of the US. It remains to be seen how the incoming administration will handle India and its aspirations especially those regarding Pakistan. Human inflows from India on H1B visas look likely to be affected badly.
We are closer to a bullet train than nuclear fuel supply with China still blocking India’s entry to NSG and Pakistan still an irritant and a threat. Together with India’s bete noire Pakistan, China has alsomanoeuvred to surround India in all directions through economic inclusion of India’s neighbours in its plans, and military aid… On the flip side, the Union Government saved numerous Indian lives in distress, mainly through the efforts of the MEA under Sushma Swaraj and built a strong friendship with the USA which has resulted in military deals in return for support for its NSG application.
India tried to leverage its leadership’s growing visibility in the world, into membership of the NSG and a permanent seat on the UNSC, but failed to cut ice. It made some headway in the BRICS with the setup of a new bank, and in bilateral relationships with the US, Iran, Israel and Japan, but failed to translate this relationship into strictures on Pakistan’s behaviour. It was checkmated by China and Pakistan in world forums and in their own bilateral relations.“Global blocs and alliances are less relevant today and the world is moving towards a loosely arranged order,” said Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar in an address to the press this year, shortly before India announced that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was going to drop out of attending the Non-Aligned Summit in Venezuela, creating a historic moment in its foreign policy – A clear shift from Nehurvian policy. India has however managed to balance and strengthen its relations with West Asian countries and Israel simultaneously, a notoriously difficult task.
India in 2016:
The Union Government that promised maximum governance with minimum governmentseems to have reversed its stand – It has now adopted what generally all insecure governments tend to do – Maximum government with minimum governance – Its now an era of radio and raids. Like a thriller novel, it’s an era of drama without substance, an era of suppression without overt oppression, an era of increased regulation and dwindling privacy, an era of high growth with no jobs, and an era where terror has a new definition. Above all it’s an era, where the leadership believes that the people of the country are with it and their representatives (including from their own party) are not, if one were to give credence to the opposition charge that they blocked a parliamentary discussion that entailed a vote on demonetization, leading to a total parliamentary washout during the winter session.
Hard work cannot replace smart work, no matter the amount you put in or how much it is touted on social media. That is clear in the consequences of demonetization a decision that was emulated by Venenzuela. India is no Venenzuela, but the quality of governance post demonetization was clear in the queues, the cash crunch, the plummeting sales and decaying business environment, the plethora of rules that kept changing every day (more in than 50 in the last 50 days) and the changing goal posts of government announcements – whether it’s the land acquisition act at the beginning of this government’s term or the demonetization exercise midway through its term or its lack lustre approach to the operationalizing the Lokpal Act or creating an independent CBI and the keen desire to impose its views in judicial appointments all point to this fact.
Democratic principles have undergone a sea change. Institutions remain, but have been put on a watch list for infringement much like the NGO’s which have been regulated more strictly in accordance with the prevailing FCRA Act and rules. Almost 20,000 have had to wind up, after their FCRA licence was cancelled due to violations and the remaining function in a more difficult environment.
While there is no real employment growth despite the positive GDP numbers put out by the Government, demonetization has given employment and the chance to earn beyond their dreams to many – creating a new class of millionaires and giving an impetus to a neo corrupt class. Then there was the Kashmir mess, the terrorist attacks at Pathankot and Uri, the railway accidents, and the like… all of which cannot be blamed on the government, but are a system fallibility indication which cannot be wished away.
There were positives too…. the higher tax collections as reported , the lower inflation rates, the hope of achievements of India’s space and missile programme culminating in the successful trial of the Agni V nuclear capable missile which created a flutter in China and the Indo Bangladesh land sharing agreement and the various schemes to improve lives and skills of Indian Citizens, all beginning with the letter ‘S’ for Success – from startup to skill up.
The universally agreed highs have mostly come from sports – the rise and rise of Kohli as captain and player and his test team to the pinnacle of world cricket. The excellent and possibly unexpected medals at the Olympics by PV Sindhu in Badminton, Sakshi Malik in Wrestling and the heroic DipaKarmakar missing a bronze in Gymnastics by a whisker. The outstanding show by Indian Athletes in Paralympics and the rise of Indian Hockey from the depths of 2015. It’s not where it wants to be yet but it is getting there and there is plenty in reserve with the juniors winning the world cup in Lucknow towards the end of the year. Sports bodies didn’t have it so good though – The IOA, the BCCI, the I league, the IPL to name a few burnt their fingers and indeed their hands with their various decisions being questioned by the courts, the media and the public, forcing a retreat or defiance followed by a retreat, the last being the appointment of Kalmadi and Chautala as Life Presidents of the IOA!
Mitron, 2016 was an interesting year, with cheer and fear, and 2017 is likely to follow suit, hopefully in reverse, with the early budget beginning the process….
