Following a poor show by the state Congress in the 2004 state assembly elections, once a loyal state Congressmen said, “The party’s debacle in elections is not due to the strong opposition but due to our own party men”. When asked to elaborate further, he stated,” nepotism during ticket distribution, rebellion following ticket denial to genuine aspirants, wide ranging differences between government and party organisation and few more. If this could be avoided, the party with people’s strong emotional backing will romp home easily”.
The situation is no different this time after 14 long years, when the Siddaramaiah-led state Congress government is attempting to regain power after a 5-year stint. The defeat then was mainly attributed to Krishna government being projected pro-urban and not doing enough to mitigate the woes of rural electorate. Despite some significant contributions to put Bangalore on the international map as the silicon city and implementation of technology driven administration, notably Bhoomi for land records and formation of women’s self help groups (Stree Shakthi Sanghas) aimed at women empowerment, the Krishna-led Congress failed to woo voters. The good deeds failed to fetch expected dividends at the crunch hour as the electorate did not consider the drought faced by the state for 3 consecutive years during Krishna’s five-year-term and voted for a hung assembly, with anti-incumbency being the other major factor leading to Congress’s poor showing.
Prudent state electorate once again reposed their faith in Congress party nine years down the line in 2013 and the grand old national party regained power, this time with a clear majority. The race for power has already begun among three major political parties with ruling party sniffing an opportunity to enter the corridors of power, once again in 2018.
The party in power faces problems aplenty. The cold war within the party between state chief minister and the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president continues to this day to worry Congress. The latest being KPCC President G Parameshwara on January 15, who is said to have expressed dismay over the state government not working in sync with the party.
Parameshwara aired his concerns at the first meeting of the newly-appointed KPCC office-bearers in the presence of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and AICC State In-charge K C Venugopal. “At the end of the day, it is the party workers who take the government’s achievements to the masses. The government has to work with the party”, said Parameshwara stressing on “better coordination” between the government and the ruling party with barely 3-4 months left for elections.
Many in the party consider this as a continuation of the tension between Parameshwara and Siddaramaiah but the latter in a face saving attempt told party workers in the meeting that there is unity.
The two have been at loggerheads over several issues ever since Congress assumed power in 2013, when Parameshwar’s personal electoral defeat ruined his chances of becoming the first Dalit chief minister of the state. Subsequent efforts by him to occupy the top slot when the clamour for a Dalit CM reached its peak, Siddaramaiah tactfully handled the issue, despite being entangled in few controversies.
In a damage control exercise, the Congress high command replaced Digvijay Singh, considered close to Siddaramaiah with K C Venugopal, a known work horse as AICC’s state in charge. After assuming charge, Venugopal has been stressing on party unity at the state level to romp home in the assembly polls due in May 2018. But to the utter dismay of everyone present, five ministers and 80 office-bearers skipped the recent meeting to once again expose the chinks in party unity.
The problems are unlikely to subside as days go by and the bitter wrangling among ticket aspirants is bound to leave many losers disheartened paving the way for a rise in rebellion. To make matters worse, sons of MLAs and ministers are staking claim for party tickets to widen their clout in political spheres. The never ending tussle between original Congressmen and those from outside though not in the open, is likely to have its own impact on the final verdict.
Reacting on the recent Gujarat verdict, which went to polls recently, Yogendra Yadav, an Indian politician, psephologist and academic, said, “Congress missed an opportunity”, ignoring the party’s good showing in that state. In the election battle ground where only victory matters and Congress failed to capitalise on the anti-incumbency factor, note ban and GST. This apart, the rebellion in the party with a fraction switching over to BJP ahead of polls dented party’s chances in few areas. Political analysts felt Rahul’s understanding with young Patidar youth leader Hardik Patel helped Congress gain more seats, but critics said the move by the Congress to appease Patel community backfired as other communities distanced themselves, implying the party would have fared better without Hardik. Congress candidates suffered defeat by a very slender margin in few constituencies, with many loyal grass root party workers unhappy with the choice of party candidates at the last hour. All these factors only contributed to the party’s loss, pushing it down from a possible winning position.
The ground scenario in the state is not very different from that of Gujarat with anti-incumbency bound to have an influence on the overall results, despite top state leaders ruling out such a possibility. The senior most leaders holding a list of their own, vying for tickets for their loyalists in order to maintain a stranglehold over party affairs, is bound to affect the party adversely.
Not that opposition parties BJP and JDS are spared of problems Congress faces, but will go all guns blazing to improve their chances in the ensuing polls with nothing to lose. They will simultaneously highlight the failures of the government and thrive on issues that rocked the state to put the ruling regime on the back foot. Janata Dal state chief Kumaraswamy announcing farm loan waiver within 24 hours of assuming power and BJP hellbent on giving back some “Congressmen their due’, are bound to inrease temperatures in the election battle field further in the coming days.
Despite odds heavily stacked against Congress, the party can take pride in pre-poll surveys giving a clear edge to the party in terms of number of seats and vote share. Most surveys predict a hung assembly, without clearly spelling out the impact due to powerful Modi-Shah combine on the final outcome.
Newly elected National Congress president Rahul Gandhi has his task cut-out to streamline the party organisation in the state with hardly any time left. His ability to lead the party from the front will get fillip, if he manages to sail through and halt the BJP juggernaut.
Will politically savvy chief minister Siddaramaiah succeed in offering the Congress, its victory as a gift to Rahul’s ascendancy or will the party go down opening the flood gates to the saffron brigade in the South, which is already on a roll, is anybody’s guess!
